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Advanced prediction of long period ground motion in Osaka during huge subduction earthquakes

大阪大俯冲地震期间长周期地震动的高级预测

基本信息

批准号：
17560503
负责人：
KAMAE Katsuhiro
金额：
$ 1.47万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17560503/
关键词：
Subduction earthquakes Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes Long period ground motion prediction Source modeling Large scaled basin 3-D F.D.M Osaka basin 大阪平野強震動予測長周期地震動海溝型地震内陸地殻内地震強震動予測レシピ経験的グリーン関数法堆積盆地

项目摘要

There is high possibility of the occurrence of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes which are capable of causing immense damage to mega-city Osaka which located inside the Osaka basin. In this study, we tried to advance the long period ground motion prediction through the verification of the source modeling based on the recipe for the ground motion prediction, estimation of propagation path effect. We showed the validation of the source modeling due to the recipe from application to the actual earthquakes (2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake and 2005 Miyagiken-oki earthquake). Furthermore, from theoretical long period ground motion simulation of the recordings, we proposed Q=f・Vs/2 as the optimum Q value in waveform simulations using 3-D Finite Difference Method. Finally, we carried out long period ground motion prediction in mega-city Osaka using the 3-D finite difference method for the expected Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes. The characteristics of the predicted long-period ground motions are related with the source location and the thicknesses of the sediments of the basin. The predominant period of ground motions is 4 to 6 second in the thick sediment area, 3 to 4 second in the thin sediment area (basin edge). The durations of long period ground motions in the central part of the Osaka city are more than 4 minutes, and the predominant period is around 6 second. These results suggest that we need to investigate the seismic safety of high-rise buildings and base-isolated buildings and so on.

位于大坂盆地内的大城市大坂，很有可能发生能够造成巨大破坏的东南海和南海地震。本研究试图通过验证基于地震动预测方法的震源模型、估计传播路径效应来推进长周期地震动预测。我们展示了震源模拟的有效性，因为配方从应用到实际地震（2003年十胜冲地震和2005年宫城县冲地震）。此外，从长周期地震动的理论模拟结果出发，提出了用三维有限差分法进行波形模拟时的最佳Q值Q=f·Vs/2。最后，我们进行了长周期的地面运动预测在大城市大坂使用的三维有限差分法的预期东南海和南海地震。预测的长周期地震动特征与震源位置和盆地沉积物厚度有关。厚沉积区地震动的卓越周期为4 ~ 6秒，薄沉积区（盆地边缘）地震动的卓越周期为3 ~ 4秒。大坂市中心地区的长周期地震动持续时间超过4分钟，优势周期约为6秒。这些结果表明，我们需要研究高层建筑和基础隔震建筑等的地震安全性。