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Destructive strong motion estimation during the old inland large earthquakes based on empirical heterogeneous source model

基于经验异源模型的老内陆大地震破坏性强震估计

基本信息

批准号：
12650570
负责人：
KAMAE Katsuhiro
金额：
$ 1.47万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12650570/
关键词：
Crustal earthquake Strong motion simulation Heterogeneous source model Hybrid technique Seismic intensity 7 1945 Mikawa earthquake Recipe of strong motion prediction 内陸地穀内浅発地震過去の内陸地震震度7 経験的不均質震源モデル震度分布

项目摘要

Most of the uncertainties in predicting strong ground motion is to model source heterogeneities of future earthquakes. An available method we propose for characterizing the heterogeneous slip distribution on the fault plane is based on the empirical source characterization derived from the slip models of the crustal earthquakes by Somerville et al. (1999). Areas of asperities having large slips are defined based on the slip models derived from waveform inversion of longer ground motion recordings than 1 second. Using this method, we can specify asperities with uniform slip on the fault surface whose sizes are constrained by the entire seismic moment of an earthquake. We need to investigate the effectiveness of the asperity models through the simulations of broad-band strong ground motions. In this study, the validity and applicability of the source models composed of some asperities and background (off asperities) for strong ground prediction are examined through the simulation of strong ground motions during the 1945 Mikawa earthquake and the 2000 Tottori-ken Senbu earthquake in Japan.In the simulation of the Mikawa earthquake, we have obtained that the distributions of the synthetic peak velocity and instrumental seismic intensity roughly correspond to the distribution of the seismic intensity estimated from the observed collapse ratio of wooden houses. Furthermore, the peak velocity of the corresponding synthetic waveform is close to 150 cm/sec, and compatible to the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake and the 1948 Fukui earthquake.Resultantly, we found that the asperity models are available for estimating broad-band strong ground motions, and that the destructive strong motions in the area of the intensity 7 have velocity amplitude larger than 150 cm/sec.

预测强地面运动的不确定性主要是为了模拟未来地震的震源不均匀性。我们提出的一种描述断层面上不均匀滑动分布的有效方法是基于萨默维尔等人（1999）从地壳地震滑动模型中得出的经验震源特征。具有大滑移的凹凸体区域是基于从长于1秒的地面运动记录的波形反演得到的滑移模型来定义的。利用这种方法，我们可以指定的粗糙度与均匀滑动的断层面上的大小是由地震的整个地震矩的约束。我们需要通过宽带强地面运动的模拟来研究粗糙体模型的有效性。在本研究中，由一些微凸体和背景组成的源模型的有效性和适用性通过对1945年日本三川地震和2000年鸟取县千武地震的强地面运动模拟，研究了非凸体对强地面运动预测的影响。我们得到了合成峰值速度和仪器地震烈度的分布与由观测到的木屋倒塌率估计的地震烈度的分布大致对应。结果表明，粗糙体模型可以用来估计宽频带强地震动，而7度区破坏性强地震动的速度幅值大于150 cm/sec，与1995年兵库县南部地震和1948年福井地震的速度幅值基本一致。