Russia’s growing wheat export business: What drives export growth, trade stability and pricing strategies?

在过去20年里，俄罗斯扩大了小麦出口业务，取代美国成为全球最大的小麦出口国。尽管俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰，但据预测，俄罗斯仍将是世界市场上主要的小麦供应国。俄罗斯的小麦贸易格局预计将维持下去，小麦交付的目的是向高度依赖进口的南方国家提供，同时在世界市场上与西方出口国竞争。尽管俄罗斯正在塑造国际小麦贸易体系，但缺乏对俄罗斯小麦贸易的实证研究。特别是，俄罗斯经常限制其小麦出口，这减少了国际市场上的小麦供应，加剧了价格上涨。此外，参与俄罗斯小麦出口业务的出口公司数量随着俄罗斯公司对-à-vis跨国公司的重要性上升而增加。关于俄罗斯小麦贸易的现有文献建立在“传统”贸易和产业组织理论的基础上，使用汇总的国家级数据。因此，贸易公司的异质性，例如公司规模和垂直整合程度，对贸易绩效的作用尚未考虑。本项目旨在对全球粮食安全背景下的俄罗斯小麦出口业务进行实证评估。分析基于Melitz的“新”新贸易理论（NNTT），并侧重于企业差异来解释贸易关系及其决定因素。关于俄罗斯小麦出口的独特的特定于交易的企业层面海关数据提供了在NNTT背景下调查俄罗斯国际小麦贸易关系的机会。该项目将从三个相互关联的方面调查俄罗斯的贸易表现：出口增长、贸易稳定和定价策略。计量经济学分析将通过重力、持续时间和市场定价模型进行。由于与供给侧条件有关的粮食安全研究很少，俄罗斯小麦贸易对进口国粮食安全的贡献将在与贸易有关的粮食安全指数中加以审查。因此，该项目扩大了《新贸易协定》在农产品贸易方面的应用，并将梅利茨办法转让给纯贸易公司。此外，该研究的独特之处在于，通过将三个单方程模型结合在一个联立方程组中，解决了出口增长、贸易稳定和定价策略之间潜在的相互依赖关系，这在以前的农业贸易背景下从未应用过。从政策角度来看，该项目将有助于联合国消除营养不良和饥饿的可持续发展目标。最后，项目工作将为设计一般出口导向型增长战略提供见解，这对旨在发展农业出口部门的国家很有价值。

In the last two decades, Russia has expanded its wheat export business replacing the US as the world’s largest wheat exporter. Despite the circumstances related to the invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine, it is forecasted that Russia will remain a dominant supplier of wheat to the world market. Russia’s wheat trade pattern is expected to sustain and wheat deliveries intended for the highly import depending countries in the South, while competing with the Western exporters on the world market. There is a lack of empirical research on Russian wheat trade, although the country is shaping the international wheat trade system. Especially, Russia has frequently restricted its wheat exports which has reduced wheat availability on international markets and exacerbated price increases. Moreover, the number of exporting firms involved in Russia’s wheat export business has increased with the importance of Russian firms rising vis-à-vis multinational companies. The existing literature on Russia’s wheat trade builds on “traditional” trade and industrial organization theories using aggregated country-level data. Thus, the role of heterogeneity of trade companies, for example in firm size and degree of vertical integration, for trade performance is not considered yet. This project aims to empirically assess the Russian wheat export business in the context of global food security. The analyzes are based on Melitz's "New" New Trade Theory (NNTT) and focus on firm differences to explain trade relations and its determining factors. Unique transaction-specific firm-level customs data on Russia’s wheat export provide the opportunity to investigate Russia’s international wheat trade relations in the context of the NNTT. The project will investigate Russia’s trade performance in terms of three interrelated aspects: export growth, trade stability and pricing strategy. The econometric analyses will be conducted by gravity, duration and pricing-to-market models. Since studies on food security related to supply-side conditions are rare, the contribution of Russia’s wheat trade to food security in import countries will be examined within a trade-related food security index. The project therefore expands the application of the NNTT towards trade of agricultural commodities and transfers the Melitz approach to pure trading companies. Furthermore, the study is unique by addressing potential interdependencies between export growth, trade stability and pricing strategy by combining the three single equation models in a simultaneous equations system, which has not been applied in the context of agricultural trade before. From a policy perspective, the project will contribute to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating malnutrition and hunger. Finally, the project work will provide insights in designing general export-led growth strategies, valuable for countries which aim to develop their agricultural export sector.