A Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Model for Engineering Risk Assessment

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Current Australian hydrologic design practice is moving towards use of continuous simulation to more accurately evaluate the performance of the water-related infrastructure for managing floods and droughts. A major impediment is the inability to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. This project aims to develop a stochastic rainfall model that will simulate long records of representative six-minute duration rainfall throughout the target region. The proposal introduces a three-level hierarchical model of space-time rainfall building on experience of a point rainfall model developed in previous ARC research. Practical issues dealing with data quality and validation will also be addressed.