A spatial extremes framework for predicting subdaily rainfall intensity

预测次日降雨强度的空间极值框架

• 批准号: DP150100411
• 负责人: Prof Seth Westra
• 金额: $ 18.57万
• 依托单位: The University of Adelaide
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2018-12-10
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP150100411
• 关键词: spatial; extremes; framework; predicting; subdaily

Climate change is causing extreme rainfall intensity to increase globally. The greatest increases occur for short-duration storms lasting up to several hours, bringing a heightened risk of flash-floods that are often extremely hazardous due to their rapid onset. The project aims to develop a new spatial extreme value framework to predict extreme rainfall patterns, using insights on future changes to rainfall triggering mechanisms (e.g. convective, frontal or orographic). The research aims to provide projections in the form of intensity-frequency-duration curves, areal reduction factors and antecedent rainfall depths. Engineers are expected to use this information to design infrastructure and urban planning policies to adapt to future flood risk.

气候变化导致全球极端降雨强度增加。最大的增加发生在持续数小时的短时间风暴中，这增加了山洪暴发的风险，由于其迅速爆发，往往是极其危险的。该项目旨在开发一个新的空间极值框架，利用对降雨触发机制（例如对流、锋面或地形）未来变化的认识，预测极端降雨模式。研究的目的是以强度-频率-持续时间曲线、面积折减系数和前期降雨深度的形式提供预测。预计工程师将利用这些信息来设计基础设施和城市规划政策，以适应未来的洪水风险。