Delphi techniques to find consensus in the health sciences. A methodological reflection (DEFLEX)

Delphi技术被用于健康科学，特别是为了找到共识。然而，研究表明，除其他外，分析中存在许多弥漫性修改和统计错误。该项目旨在改进Delphi程序的执行方式，以及在使用这些技术寻找共识时数据的质量。根据目前的研究，考察了三个因素，这三个因素对判断形成和共识建立有影响。这些因素包括专家小组的组成、调查设计以及如何给出反馈。这些因素中的每一个都是在不同的德尔福回合的过程中被考察的。在这样做的同时，不仅注意德尔菲技术目前的变化，而且注意关于受影响群体的参与、定性和定量数据的结合以及在线调查在分析中的具体方面的一般性方法学辩论。在此基础上，本研究探讨了两个研究问题：1.影响共识发现的因素分析：这背后的假设是，除了与主题和内容相关的方面外，还有个人、方法或实用的研究因素影响参与动机和形成判断的智力要求过程，这也影响共识发现。为此，分析了在研究和判断行为中使用Delphi程序的实践，包括多个Delphi回合。根据优化-满意理论，德尔菲程序中的受访者出于他们的职业兴趣，在心理上有很高的意愿对问题和问题进行智力上的斗争，以得出一个有充分根据和“最优”的判断。为了做到这一点，他们利用自己的专业知识和经验，同时也考虑了前几轮德尔福的反馈和来自外部来源的知识。对这些影响因素进行了定量、定性和实验分析。2.制定进行德尔福程序的方法性质量标准和指南，以寻求共识，并由国际德尔福专家进行评估。在设计中，方法论是复杂和多元的。为了分析专家的判断行为，将使用系统回顾、范围界定回顾、认知专家访谈、实验、Delphi程序评估以及对已完成的Delphi研究的二次分析。这些证据的收集旨在为德尔福程序的质量标准和指南制定初步建议。这些拟议的建议将在德尔福与国际知名的德尔福专家共同进行的单独研究中进行评估。

Delphi techniques are used in the health sciences especially to find consensus. However, studies show, among other things, that there are many diffuse modifications and statistical errors in analyses. This project aims to improve how Delphi procedures are conducted and the quality of the data when these techniques are used to find consensus. Three factors are examined, which, according to the current research, have an influence on judgment formation and consensus building. These factors include expert panel composition, survey design, and how feedback is given. Each of these factors is looked at over the course of different Delphi rounds. While doing so, attention is paid not only to the current changes to Delphi techniques, but also to general methodological debates about the participation of affected groups, the combination of qualitative and quantitative data, and the particular aspects of online surveys in the analyses. On a level above this, two research questions are pursued: 1. Analysis of factors that influence consensus finding: Behind this is the assumption that, in addition to subject matter and content-related aspects, there are also personal, methodical or pragmatic research factors that influence the motivation to participate and the intellectually demanding process of forming judgments, which then also influence consensus finding. For this reason, the practice of using Delphi procedures in research and judgment behavior are analyzed, including over multiple Delphi rounds. According to the optimizing-satisficing theory, it is argued that psychologically the respondents in Delphi procedures have a high degree of willingness, due to their professional interests, to intellectually grapple with the questions and issues in order to arrive at a well-founded and "optimal" judgment. To do this, they draw upon their own expertise and experience while also considering the feedback from previous Delphi rounds and knowledge from external sources. The analysis of these influencing factors is carried out quantitatively, qualitatively and experimentally. 2. Formulating methodical quality standards and guidelines for conducting Delphi procedures to find consensus, which are evaluated by the international Delphi-experts. The methodical approach is complex and pluralistic in design. To analyze the judgment behavior of experts, a systematic review, a scoping review, cognitive expert interviews, an experiment, an evaluation of Delphi procedures, and a secondary analysis of completed Delphi studies will be applied. This collection of evidence aims at formulating initial recommendations for quality standards and guidelines for Delphi procedures. These proposed recommendations will then be evaluated in a separate Delphi study with internationally regarded Delphi experts.