An international comparison of migration based on the adjustment procedure

在1990年的日本人口普查中，移民的定义发生了变化。这导致很难将1990年人口普查报告的移徙数据与1970/80年人口普查报告的数据进行直接比较。我们制定了一个调整程序，使我们能够根据1990年人口普查中采用的定义，获得1965-70年/1975-80年的移民估计数。这一程序的详细内容刊登在第23期《人口研究杂志》上，这是在按年龄段划分的区域间移徙框架内考虑的。基本思想是估计移徙数据，以便在两次人口普查期间特定区域的人口变化等于观察到的净移徙变化。这一新方法直接比较了1965-70年、1975-80年和1985-90年这三个时期的人口迁移模式。这里的程序对于外国人口普查报告的移民数据的可比性具有重要的意义。作为使用这里获得的数据的例子，我们试图对日本的移民转变进行国际比较。瑞典和加拿大。研究结果发表在《国际人口地理学杂志》第5卷第1期上。取得的主要成果如下。自20世纪70年代以来，包括这三个国家在内的发达国家也出现了类似的移民转变。该文件阐明，主要决定因素是人口因素，这意味着由于战后出生率的波动，年轻人的供应发生了变化，以及与劳动力市场重组有关的经济因素。

In the 1990 census of Japan, the definition of migration changed. It led to a difficulty of direct comparison of migration data reported in 1990 census with those in 1970/80 census. We thought out an adjustment procedure, which enables us to obtain estimates of migration 1965-70/1975-80 based on the definition adopted in the 1990 census. The detailed contents of the procedure was published at No.23 issue of Jinkogaku-kenkyu (Journal of Population Studies), and this was thought out within the framework of interregional migration by age class. Basic idea is to estimate migration data so that region-specific population change during the inter-census years is equal to its observed net-migration change. This new method led to a direct comparison of the migration patterns for the three periods : 1965-70, 1975-80, and 1985-90. The procedure here has an important implication for comparability of migration data reported in the censuses of foreign countries.As an example of using the data obtained here, we attempted an international comparison of migration turnarounds in Japan. Sweden and Canada. Its result is published at Vol.5, No.1 issue of International Journal of Population Geography. Major findings obtained are as follows. Since the 1970s, similar migration turnarounds were observed in developed countries including these three countries. The paper elucidated that main determinants of them are demographic factor, which implies changing supply of young adults due to fluctuation of birth rate in the post-war years, and economic factor associated with labour market restructuring.