The Integration of Computable General Equilibrium and Spatial Agent-Based Modeling for Disaster Management Policies: The case of Japanese Automobile Industry in Thailand

可计算一般均衡与基于空间代理的灾害管理政策建模的集成：以泰国日本汽车工业为例

• 批准号: 26780157
• 负责人: Anantsuksomsri S
• 金额: $ 1.5万
• 依托单位: Waseda University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2014-04-01 至 2016-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-26780157/
• 关键词: CGE model; agent-based model; automobile Industry; Thailand; CGE; flood; automobile industry; disaster management

In FY 2015, I initially planned to complete my research project by combining a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, a top-down policy analysis approach which I already constructed in FY 2013, and agent-based model, a bottom-up policy analysis approach which I already created in FY 2014. However, due to my relocation to Thailand, I could not be able to complete my research plan and the project this fiscal year.The method for linking a CGE model and agent-based model is Robust Decision Making (RDM), which is an iterative decision analytic framework that helps identify potential robust strategies, characterize the vulnerabilities of such strategies, and evaluate the trade-offs among them. It was developed by RAND Corporation. I plan to apply the result of my models in RDM framework to formulate policies on disaster mitigation and management.In addition, my methodological approach on disaster management policy analysis will be used to analyze on a research project on climate change, “Socioeconomic Risk Assessment of Flooding in the Urban Area of Udonthani for present and future spatial risk of Climate Change" funded by Thailand Research Funds.

在2015财年，我最初计划结合2013财年构建的自上而下的政策分析方法Computable General Equilibrium （CGE）模型和2014财年创建的自下而上的政策分析方法agent-based模型来完成我的研究项目。然而，由于我被调往泰国，我无法完成我的研究计划和本财政年度的项目。连接CGE模型和基于代理的模型的方法是稳健决策制定（RDM），这是一个迭代决策分析框架，有助于识别潜在的稳健策略，表征这些策略的脆弱性，并评估它们之间的权衡。它是由兰德公司开发的。我计划将我的模型的结果应用于RDM框架，以制定减灾和管理政策。此外，我在灾害管理政策分析方面的方法学方法将被用于泰国研究基金资助的气候变化研究项目“乌东他尼市区洪水的社会经济风险评估：当前和未来气候变化的空间风险”的分析。

项目成果

Urban Risk Assessment under Climate Change: The Case Study of Thailand

气候变化下的城市风险评估：泰国案例研究

• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Junichi Fujimoto;Ko Munakata;and Yuki Teranishi;Sutee ANANTSUKSOMSRI & Nij TONTISITRIN
• 通讯作者: Sutee ANANTSUKSOMSRI & Nij TONTISITRIN

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban Risk: A Case of Flood in Urban Areas in Thailand

城市风险时空分析：以泰国城市洪涝为例

• 发表时间: 2014
• 作者: Junichi Fujimoto;Ko Munakata;and Yuki Teranishi;Sutee ANANTSUKSOMSRI & Nij TONTISITRIN;Sutee Anantsuksomsri
• 通讯作者: Sutee Anantsuksomsri

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Disaster Resilience: The Case Study of Flood Management in Thailand

基于主体的抗灾建模方法：泰国洪水管理案例研究

• 发表时间: 2014
• 作者: Junichi Fujimoto;Ko Munakata;and Yuki Teranishi;Sutee ANANTSUKSOMSRI & Nij TONTISITRIN;Sutee Anantsuksomsri;Sutee Anantsuksomsri
• 通讯作者: Sutee Anantsuksomsri