A Generalization of the Carlson-Parkin Method for the Estimation of Expected Inflation Rate

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In this research, we generalize the carlson-parkin method for the estimation of expected inflation rates based on qualitative survey data. An importatnt generalization is that in our model, people,s resoonses to the question givencan be random, while in the carlson-parkin method, they are not random. Second, alternative determinations of a threshod value are proposed. Third, the problem is treatedwith a gamma respones function under gamma distribution, which is asymmetric.The idea of the carlson-parkin method is applied to the indexization of such survey data as business sentiments, in particular the survey data on the business conditions carried out by the bank of japan. in such data, a variable to be indexed is not obserbable. Hence we first suppose a latent variable to be indexed and show the identifiability of the variable. Then an indicator for business conditions is proposed, which is called a standardized normal cp indicator. Also the paper gives a theoretical foundation to the diffusion index.