Methods for managing business risks and their practical applications

对于有效的管理决策，重要的是识别和分析业务风险或等同的不确定性，包括战略风险、运营风险、财务风险和危害风险，并将影响利润现金流。本研究旨在从风险收益框架出发，为企业风险管理提供一些定量的方法。值得注意的是，一个项目或企业的未来现金流的净现值（NPV）是未来不确定性的函数，这些不确定性是随机变量，因此它被表示为代表NPV的整个风险回报结构的分布。不确定性包括规则变化或发生一定震级地震等事件型不确定性和连续型不确定性。我们同时治疗这两种疾病。然而，那些作为一个团队做出组织决策的人表达了影响未来现金流的不确定性的不同分布，即使是在……之后，更多的是经过充分信息和分析的精心策划的讨论。本研究首先处理的问题是，在给定共同信息的情况下，制定一种方法来组合由主观分布所表达的不同观点。在组合或总结过程中，我们考虑了与专业领域或水平有关的权重以及决策者的责任，以获得组织分布。其次，我们讨论了日本社会经济社会的一个历史演变，即日本社会经济社会正处于一个接受和利用思想框架的阶段，在这个思想框架中，随机的、不确定的或不确定的现象应该被以概率的方式理解，并以统计的方法建模，然后从分析中得出有效的决策。本文以企业风险管理为主题，对这一趋势进行了探讨和综述。第三，给出了一种分析回收业务风险收益结构的有效公式，并将其应用于啤酒行业生物质业务的模拟分析。确定了业务中涉及的风险，并在建模中处理了啤酒需求和啤酒公司份额的变化，并推导了现金流NPV的分布。第四，考虑考虑租户置换的商业物业租赁价值问题，推导出一个可变和固定的最优租金组合和最优租户置换规则，其中每个租户的租金和销售额都是随机变量。第五，将银行贷款管理问题归结为企业范围内的风险收益优化问题，将贷款利率与借款人的信用利率挂钩。我们提供了分行和总部同时或逐步优化贷款头寸的模型。第六，对燃气公司与保险公司之间的冬季气温风险互换进行公平性评价。少

For an effective decision making in management, it is important to identify and analyze business risks or equivalently uncertainties that include strategic risks, operational risks, financial risks and hazard risks, and will affect profit cash flows. This research aims to provide some quantitative methods for such business risk management in view of risk-return framework. It is noted that the net present value (NPV) of future cash flows of a project or a business is a function of future uncertainties, which are random variables, and hence it is expressed as a distribution representing the whole risk-return structure of the NPV. The uncertainties consists of event type uncertainties such as a change of regulation or an occurrence of earthquake with magnitude of a certain level and continuous type uncertainties. We treat the both.However, those who make an organizational decision making as a team express different distributions of the uncertainties affecting future cash flows even after … More a well-planned discussion with sufficient information and analysis. This research first treat the problem of formulating a method for combining different views expressed by subjective distributions given common information. In the combination or summarizing procedure we take into account weights concerning the expertized areas or levels and the responsibilities of the decision makers to get an organizational distribution.Second, we discuss on a historical evolution that the Japanese socio-economic society is in a stage to accept and make a good use of the framework of thoughts in which random, uncertain or indefinite phenomena are, as they should be, understood in a probabilistic manner and modeled in a statistical approach, and then an effective decision is drawn from the analysis. This trend is discussed and overviewed by taking the theme of the Enterprise Risk Management.Third, we give an effective formulation for analyzing risk-return structure in recycling business and apply it to a simulation analysis on the business of biomass in beer industry. The risks involved in the business are identified and the variations of demand for beer and share of beer companies are treated in modeling and the distribution of the NPV of cash flows is derived.Fourth, the problem of valuing lease for commercial properties with tenant replacement is considered, and an optimal rent mix of variable and fixed and an optimal tenant replacement rule are derived, where rent and sales of each tenant are random variables.Fifth, a management problem of making loans in banking is formulated as an enterprise-wide optimization problem for risk-return where loan rates and credit rates of borrowers are linked. We provide a model for optimizing the loan positions in the branches and headquarter simultaneously or gradually.Sixth, winter-temperature risk swap made between a gas company and an insurance company is evaluated for fairness. Less