Initial Design of Marine Transportation System Taking into Consideration of Structure of Interregional Transportation Demand

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Due effort in this study is paid to establish a consistent design procedure applied to the planning of marine transportation system which is the upper stream information for ship design.During the two-year plan, the study were carried out on the following items.1. To elaborate appropriate methods for anlysing the structure of marine transportation system, modelling the system, and forecasting interregional marine transportation demand, 2. To prepare a classfication method to utilize the data bases relating to the problem, and 3. To establish an consistent design procedure for the optimization of marine transportation system including optimum fleet of vessels concerned.The results of the study are: a. As for the method for forecasting marine transportation demand, both the input-output analysis and the system dynamic analysis were found to be most appropriate, and an original modelling support system for system dynamics was designed. b. As for the method to utilize the knowledge data bases, a simple hierarchical conceptual clustering method was proposed using artificial Intelligence techniques. c. A normative design procedure for the optimization of marine transportation system, especially for the vehicle routing problem, was proposed, and an algorithmic procedure with neural networks for solving combinatorial optimization problems was developed. d. To verify the above results, the model proposed is due to be applied to Indonesia.