Reliability Analysis and Management of Water Resources System with Probabilistic Matrix Approach

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

1. Basin simulation with matrix methodIn order to estimate the rainfall and runーoff process in whole river basin, rainfall was simulated through multiーpoint and simultaneous matrix method of oneーorder Marcov chain. Introducing linear regression model for longーterm and storage function model for shortーterm, discharge sequences are calculated and conditional probability matrixes of discharge were gained.2. Probabilistic evaluation of water quantity and qualityWater resources system including storage reservoir is consisting of several units such as division, confluence, reservoir, intake, purification, usage and so on. The transition processes were formulated in time and space based on probabilistic matrix methods. Probabilistic evaluation was taken at any reference point through shift operation and it's inverse method.3. Multiーobjective evaluation of water resources systemWater quantity and quality were evaluated at reference point considering reliability, resiliency and vulnerability. These criteria were applied to the real water resources systems in the cases of the linear type, the lumping purification type and the reーuse type. Then the vector optimization technique is employed to find the best solution for decision making of planning.4. Optimal planning of site, scale and schedule of water resources systemsWhen drought or flood control projects are planned, there are several conflicts between governments and the residents who live on the project site, or the residents in the upstream area and in the down stream area. Introducing the conflict analysis which is one of metaーgame theories, the game was formulated then the rational solution was gained under the conditional constraints of different preferences for players and changing preference in time.