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Reliability Analysis and Management of Water Resources System with Probabilistic Matrix Approach

概率矩阵法水资源系统可靠性分析与管理

基本信息

批准号：
01550402
负责人：
KOJIRI Toshiharu
金额：
$ 1.28万
依托单位：
Gifu. University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1989
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1989 至 1990
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

1. Basin simulation with matrix methodIn order to estimate the rainfall and runーoff process in whole river basin, rainfall was simulated through multiーpoint and simultaneous matrix method of oneーorder Marcov chain. Introducing linear regression model for longーterm and storage function model for shortーterm, discharge sequences are calculated and conditional probability matrixes of discharge were gained.2. Probabilistic evaluation of water quantity and qualityWater resources system including storage reservoir is consisting of several units such as division, confluence, reservoir, intake, purification, usage and so on. The transition processes were formulated in time and space based on probabilistic matrix methods. Probabilistic evaluation was taken at any reference point through shift operation and it's inverse method.3. Multiーobjective evaluation of water resources systemWater quantity and quality were evaluated at reference point considering reliability, resiliency and vulnerability. These criteria were applied to the real water resources systems in the cases of the linear type, the lumping purification type and the reーuse type. Then the vector optimization technique is employed to find the best solution for decision making of planning.4. Optimal planning of site, scale and schedule of water resources systemsWhen drought or flood control projects are planned, there are several conflicts between governments and the residents who live on the project site, or the residents in the upstream area and in the down stream area. Introducing the conflict analysis which is one of metaーgame theories, the game was formulated then the rational solution was gained under the conditional constraints of different preferences for players and changing preference in time.

1.矩阵法流域模拟为了估算全流域的降雨径流过程，采用一阶马尔可夫链多点联立矩阵法进行降雨模拟。引入长期线性回归模型和短期存储函数模型，计算放电序列，得到放电条件概率矩阵。 2．水量和水质的概率评价包括蓄水库在内的水资源系统由分区、汇流、水库、取水、净化、使用等多个单元组成。基于概率矩阵方法在时间和空间上制定过渡过程。通过移位运算及其逆法在任意参考点进行概率评价。 3．水资源系统的多目标评价在考虑可靠性、弹性和脆弱性的参考点上对水量和水质进行评价。这些标准适用于线性型、集中净化型和再利用型的实际水资源系统。然后利用向量优化技术寻找规划决策的最佳方案。 4．水资源系统选址、规模和进度的优化规划在规划抗旱、防洪工程时，政府与项目所在地的居民、上游地区和下游地区的居民之间存在着一些冲突。引入元博弈理论之一的冲突分析，在不同玩家偏好以及随时间变化的偏好的条件约束下制定博弈并得到合理的解决方案。