River Basin Management Model Considering Water Circulation and Utilization in Global Scale

本研究运用系统动力学的概念，建立了世界水模拟模型，以掌握世界上有关水需求和水供应的社会经济活动之间的动态相互关系。此外，还考虑了区域互联互通，以识别各区域之间的差距。在提出的模型中，社会经济活动包括几个部门，如人口、人均、农业、不可再生资源、持续污染、水量和水质。在空间上，该模型分为非洲、亚洲、澳大利亚、欧洲、北美和南美等6个大陆区域。总结了21世纪各大洲在标准运行下的一些未来趋势。非洲：没有发生大面积缺水。然而，由于不可再生资源的枯竭，粮食生产和工业产出等生活条件进入崩溃水平。亚洲：从2015年开始出现大面积缺水。在2020年左右达到50亿人口的峰值后，预计到2100年将开始减少到20亿。水资源短缺和不可再生资源减少，工业产值从2020年左右开始逐渐减少。澳大利亚：虽然本世纪不会发生缺水，但由于不可再生资源的枯竭，工业产出被认为会崩溃。粮食产量保持在可持续水平。欧洲：供水量和需水量之间的平衡是平衡的，尽管在整个运行过程中没有缺水。人口增长可能从2000年开始趋于稳定。北美：从2030年左右开始出现大面积缺水。与欧洲一样，生活条件预计将在本世纪末达到可持续水平的极限。南美洲：整个河流都有充足的水资源。然而，与非洲一样，由于不可再生资源的枯竭，生活条件预计将达到崩溃水平。少

In this research, the world water simulation model is proposed to grasp the dynamical interrelationship between the socio-economic activities concerning the water demand and the water supply in the world using System Dynamics concepts. Moreover, the regional interconnection is considered to identify the gap of each region. In the proposed model, socio-economic-activities consist of several sectors, such as population, capita, agriculture, nonrenewable resource, persistent pollution, water quantity and water quality. Spatially, the model is divided into six continental regions, such as Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America and South America. Some future trends in the 21st century of all continents under the standard run are summarized.Africa: Extensive water deficiency does not occur. However, living conditions such as food production and industrial output get into the collapse level due to the depletion of nonrenewable resources.Asia: Extensive water deficiency occurs from aro … More und 2015. After getting to the peak of 5 billion people around 2020, it is assumed to start to decrease up to 2 billion in 2100. Water deficiency and nonrenewable resources decrease, industrial output is decreasing gradually from around 2020.Australia: Although water deficiency does not occur during this century, industrial output is assumed to collapse due to the nonrenewable resources depletion. Food production is kept to be sustainable level.Europe: The balance between water supply and water demand is equipoise, though there is no water deficiency through the entire run. The population growth is likely stabilized from 2000.North America: Extensive water deficiency occurs from around 2030. As well as in Europe, the living condition is expected to reach at the limit of the sustainable level in the end of this century.South America: There are sufficient water resources through the entire run. However, same as in Africa, living conditions is expected to reach at the collapse level due to the depletion of nonrenewable resources. Less