A Comprehensive Research on Reliability Anslysis and Drought Control of Water Resources Systems under the Conditions of Global Warming

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The aim of this research is to analyze (i) the available water resources through run-off simulation under the conditions of global warming, (ii) the reliability factor to evaluate water quantity, quality and safety, (iii) water resources system with high reliability against climate change and drought, (iv) the real-time drought prediction and control to reduce the drought damage. The several mesh-typed multi-layr run-off models are formulated for the applied climate of snow-fall zone, non-snow-fall zone and snow-fall-snow-melt zone. The precipitation is generated with the probability distribution functions of non-precipitation period, precipitation period and precipitation intensity according to the discretized temperature levels. The actual daily water demand is predicted with the linear regression model of current discharge, current temperature, usual water demand and previous discharge. As the simulated precipitation with temperature rise of 3 degree centigrate is reduced to be about 94%, the precipitation is increased to be 114% for matching precipitation increase of 10% by GCMs. The discharge is found to be increased with precipitation increase. For snow-fall region, the discharge from March to May will decrease because of early snow-melt. The charge of hydrograph, in other words, available discharge sequence is evaluated from the viewpoint of water use such as working cost of water transport, buying cost of storage equipment, safety cost for water shortage and so on. Moreover, the equivalent value concept is introduced to estimate the drought damage. Finally the realtime reservoir operation is proposed with fuzzy theory by combining the long-term weather forecast and classified hydrographs. The operation strategy is decided with fuzzy inference method called as knowledgebased decision support system.