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A Comprehensive Research on Reliability Anslysis and Drought Control of Water Resources Systems under the Conditions of Global Warming

全球变暖条件下水资源系统可靠性分析与抗旱综合研究

基本信息

批准号：
03302046
负责人：
KOJIRI Toshiharu
金额：
$ 2.88万
依托单位：
Gifu University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
财政年份：
1991
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1991 至 1993
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The aim of this research is to analyze (i) the available water resources through run-off simulation under the conditions of global warming, (ii) the reliability factor to evaluate water quantity, quality and safety, (iii) water resources system with high reliability against climate change and drought, (iv) the real-time drought prediction and control to reduce the drought damage. The several mesh-typed multi-layr run-off models are formulated for the applied climate of snow-fall zone, non-snow-fall zone and snow-fall-snow-melt zone. The precipitation is generated with the probability distribution functions of non-precipitation period, precipitation period and precipitation intensity according to the discretized temperature levels. The actual daily water demand is predicted with the linear regression model of current discharge, current temperature, usual water demand and previous discharge. As the simulated precipitation with temperature rise of 3 degree centigrate is reduced to be about 94%, the precipitation is increased to be 114% for matching precipitation increase of 10% by GCMs. The discharge is found to be increased with precipitation increase. For snow-fall region, the discharge from March to May will decrease because of early snow-melt. The charge of hydrograph, in other words, available discharge sequence is evaluated from the viewpoint of water use such as working cost of water transport, buying cost of storage equipment, safety cost for water shortage and so on. Moreover, the equivalent value concept is introduced to estimate the drought damage. Finally the realtime reservoir operation is proposed with fuzzy theory by combining the long-term weather forecast and classified hydrographs. The operation strategy is decided with fuzzy inference method called as knowledgebased decision support system.

本研究的目的是分析（i）全球变暖条件下径流模拟的可用水资源；（ii）评估水量、质量和安全的可靠性因子；（iii）针对气候变化和干旱的高可靠性水资源系统；（iv）实时干旱预测和控制以减少干旱损失。针对降雪区、非降雪区和降雪融雪区的应用气候，建立了多种网格式多层径流模型。降水是根据离散的温度水平，用无降水期、降水期和降水强度的概率分布函数生成的。利用当前流量、当前温度、平时需水量和前期流量的线性回归模型预测每日实际需水量。由于温度升高 3 摄氏度的模拟降水量减少到约 94%，因此 GCM 匹配降水量增加 10%，降水量增加到 114%。发现流量随着降水量的增加而增加。对于降雪地区，由于融雪提前，3-5月份流量会减少。水文费用，即可用的排水顺序，是从水运运行成本、储存设备购买成本、缺水安全成本等用水角度进行评估的。此外，还引入了等值概念来估算干旱损失。最后结合长期天气预报和分类水位线，利用模糊理论提出了实时水库调度。采用模糊推理方法决定运行策略，称为基于知识的决策支持系统。