Reflux of black-ink balance and the takeoff-accelerating effect of international gigantic project - dynamic public investment criteria-oriented-investigation of an Asian Expressway Network plan -

本文试图构建一个动态的区域间投入产出规划模型，以衡量亚洲高速公路网对中国的社会经济影响，并得出其投资标准。即在模型中引入集聚效应产生的加速系统，由此推导出中国“起飞”的动态过程。可以毫不夸张地说，亚洲高速公路网将对中国经济的增长路径产生相当大的影响；在仿真结果的基础上，通过动态有无试验对其进行了验证。结果表明：在规划前期，可获得的外生投资资金投资于普通道路、港口设施等其他对象而非高速公路网所衍生出的自然增长轨迹或其他增长轨迹比外生投资集中于高速公路网所产生的经济增长率更高；然而，在后期，“有”高速公路网络的经济增长压倒了“没有”高速公路的经济增长。也就是说，与其他可供选择的经济增长路径相比，以高速公路网为导向的发展方案实现了最大的“起飞加速效应”。即在各种运输服务中，作为衍生需求的高速公路服务的综合成本最便宜；也就是说，在众多备选集合中确定了综合机会成本（社会效益代理指数）的最有效活动集合。这样，我们就达到了预定的目标。

We have intended to construct a dynamic interregional input-output programming model in order to measure social economic effects of the Asian Expressway Network on China and derive its investment criterion. That is, the accelerating-system for yielding agglomeration-effects is built into the model, by which the dynamic process of 'takeoff' of China has been derived.It is not too much to say that we can recognize the Asian Expressway Network will produce considerably great impacts to the growth path of Chinese economy; which we have demonstrated by the Dynamic With and Without Test based on the simulation results.It follows that: in the earlier stage of planning period, the natural growth trajectory or other trajectory which are derived as the result that the avalable exogenous investment fund has been invested other objects such as ordinary roads, port facilities, etc. than an expressway network have generated the higher growth rate than that of the economy in which the exogenous investment found had been concentrated to the Expressway Network; however, in the latter period, the economic growth 'with' the expressway network has overwhelmingly dominated over that 'without' the expressway.That is to say, it has been proved that the expressway network-oriented development program realizes the greatest 'takeoff-accelerating effects,' compared to the other alternative economic growth paths. Namely, the all-embracing cost of expressway service among various transport services as a derived demand is the cheapest; thata is, it is confirmed that the most efficient set of activities of the comprehensive opportunity cost (proxy index of social benefits) is chosen among many alternative sets. In this way, we have attained our predetermined targets.