Simulations Towards the Dynamic Optimal Planning of Plural City-Systems

我们的“多元城市系统动态优化规划模拟”模型可以说是新城市经济学第三代模型的典型前沿之一，它具有以下特点：1）它是一个模拟系统模型，可以进行大规模的数值分析;2）它是对不可延展的资本积累过程的内生化和外显式描述;（3）不是单一商品4）从根本上解决了作为猛犸城市本质特征的规模经济和集聚经济问题（上限：2000行x 6000列，数据密度为100），可以处理多城市和不同规模的城市。通过对全国不同规模的城市同时应用该模型，可以建立动态优化模型， 关于我们 从图6中可以看出，猛犸城市的社会效益评价曲线向下移动，而农村城市的社会效益评价曲线略微向上移动，如果有关公共当局采取顽固的权力下放政策，缩小小城市规模，培育农村地区。另一方面，可以看到，由于各种补贴政策，农村城市的规模可能扩大到否则不会得到发展的地区，阴影地区所显示的社会效益将以牺牲其他城市地区为代价，效率较低（机会成本）。这些都是发展方案可能带来的后果，如日本的国家综合发展计划。作为最新的和严格的结果，请参阅参考文献[1]。注（*）：[alpha]H，Kohno et al，“农村发展和城市再增长的动态优化”，载于Peter Friedrich博士和Ian Masser教授（编辑），《区域分权的国际视角》，Nomos Verlagsbesellschaft，巴登-巴登，1987年，第100页。254-277.少

Our model on the Simulathions Towards the Dynamic Optimal Planning Plural City-Systems can be described as one of the typical frontiers of the Third Generation Model in the New Urban Economics, in that it possesses the following characteristics :1) it is a simulation system model by which large-scale numerical analyses can be done ;2) the non-malleable capital accumulation process is set out endogenously and explicitly ;3) it is not a one commodity (industry) model, but a multi-industry and multi-region model ; and4) it treats fundamentally the scale and agglomeration economies which are the intrinsic qualities of all the mammoth cities.If the bottleneck of linear programming software can be solved (upper limit : 2, 000 rows x 6, 000 columns in the data density of one hundreds), our model can tackle multi-cities and different scaled ones. By applying the model to the various different scaled cities over the country concurrently, it will be possible to develop a dynamic optimization mod … More el of both regional development and urban re-growth, along the lines shown in the figures 4 to 6 in Kohno[alpha]*.In Figure 6, it can be seen that the social benefit evaluation curve of a mammoth city shifts downward, while that of a rural city moves slightly upward, and the social benefit in the shaded area will not be realized if the public authorities concerned adopt a obstinate decentralisation policy with respect to industry and population and contract the scale of momoth cities to foster rural regions. on the other hand, it will be seen that, owing to various subsidization policies, the scale of rural city may expand to areas which would not, otherwise, have been developed, and the social benefits shown by the shaded areas will be generated less efficiently at the expense of other urban regions (opportunity costs). These are the consequences that are likely to be brought by development programmes such as the National Comprehensive Development plan of Japan.As the latest and rigorous results, please refer to the reference[1].Note(*) : [alpha]H, Kohno et al., "Dynamic Optimisation of Rural Development and Urban Regrowth" in Prof. Dr. Peter Friedrich and Ian Masser (Eds), International Perspectives of Regional Decentralisation, Nomos Verlagsbesellschaft, Baden-Baden, 1987, pp. 254-277. Less