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HOKKAIDO NANSEI-OKI EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI AND DISASTER PREVENTION.

北海道南西冲地震海啸与防灾。

基本信息

批准号：
06302077
负责人：
SHUTO Nobuo
金额：
$ 5.82万
依托单位：
TOHOKU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
财政年份：
1994
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1994 至 1995
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06302077/
关键词：
Tsunami Tsunami disaster prevention Long wave trapped mode Impulsive force driftwood Evacuation manual

项目摘要

1) Based upon a re-analysis of long-period (20-50 seconds) surface waves, time-and space-distributions of dislocation of the 1993 earthquake are determined. Total earthquake moment amounts to 6.5 x 10^<20> Nm. Moment is large at three points ; shallow point near the epicenter, deep point at the southern edge of the north fault and the whole south fault. A large upheaval near Okushiri island is concluded from the analysis.2) A theory of entraptment of long waves around a conical island is derived. Theoretical results are compared with the numerical and hydraulic experiments. The theory is applied to the 1993 tsunami, and the runup distribution around Okushiri island is explained except for Monai where the maximum runup was found and except for Hamatsumae where runup of 20 m was found although the village is in the sheltered area.3) In order to simulate the high runup at Hamatsumae, the most important is the location of the south fault and its strike relative to the axis of the Okushiri Spur. The spatial grid as fine as 50 m is necessary. In order to simulate the maximum runup at Monai which was obtained at the bottom of a narrow valley, the spatial grid as fine as 5 m is used. The runups at the two places are well simulated.4) Driftwood and floated fishing boats showed a destructive effect on houses. Theories derived on several assumption are used to determined the shape of formulas, and the coefficients are fixed by experiments of large-scale. The formulas for practical use are thus obtained for the first time.5) Problems and difficulties in an emergency are learned from recent experiences and reviewed carefully for establishing an evacuation manual. An example of tsunami hazard map is obtained, based upon the yearly-change of earthquake generation probability, magnitude of earthquakes, assumed position of faults and probability of the highest tsunami height.

1) 基于对长周期（20-50秒）面波的重新分析，确定了1993年地震位错的时间和空间分布。总地震矩达 6.5 x 10^<20> Nm。力矩大在三点；浅点位于震中附近，深点位于北断层南缘和整个南断层。分析得出奥尻岛附近发生了一次大的剧变。2)推导了圆锥岛周围长波的俘获理论。将理论结果与数值和水力实验进行了比较。该理论应用于 1993 年海啸，解释了奥尻岛周围的上升分布，但除了门内发现了最大上升，滨松前除外，尽管该村庄位于避难区，但发现了 20 m 的上升。 3）为了模拟滨松前的高上升，最重要的是南断层的位置及其相对于奥尻支线轴线的走向。需要精细至50 m的空间网格。为了模拟在狭窄山谷底部获得的莫奈最大爬升，使用了细至 5 m 的空间网格。两个地方的上升情况模拟得很好。4）浮木和漂浮的渔船对房屋产生了破坏作用。采用基于多种假设的理论来确定公式的形状，并通过大规模实验确定系数。从而首次得到了实用的公式。5)总结近期经验,认真总结突发事件中的问题和困难,制定疏散手册。根据地震发生概率、地震震级、假定断层位置和海啸最高高度概率的逐年变化，获得了海啸灾害图的示例。