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Global Stagnation and International Spill-Over Effects of Economic Pohicies : Theoretical and Empirical Analyzes

全球停滞与经济政策的国际溢出效应：理论与实证分析

基本信息

批准号：
06451106
负责人：
IKEDA Shinsuke
金额：
$ 2.3万
依托单位：
Osaka University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1994
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1994 至 1996
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

1.Implications of Ono's stagnation theory (Ono) : (1) In the presence of nonsatibale wealth preference, persistent asset inflation (or bubble) can occur even if consumers are perfectly rational. (Ono, Iwanami). As an alternative of the conventional aggregate demand-aggregate supply analysis, we develop a new analytical tool. It is used to establish a dynamic foundation to the Phillips curve. (two articles in Economic Review). (3) Ono's stagnation model of a closed economy is extended to a two-country model. It is found that a county with a large foreign asset tends to face persistent unemployment.2.Empirical evidence of nonsatiable liquidity preference (Ono and Yoshida) : Using the PSID data on US consumers and non-parametric methods, we find that the nonsatiable liquidity preference hypothesis is positively supported.3.The dynamics of cumulative external debt (Ikeda and Ono) : Using models in which external debts accumulation is generated by international difference in time preference … More , we have examined welfare effects of economic policies to improve the external imbalance, such as saving-restriction policies (e.g., capital taxs), trade policies (import quota, VER), fiscal policies. Among others we obtain the following results : (1) These policies to improve the external imbalance are often harmful in welfare. (2) Export promotion for debtor country and import promotion for creditor country can be the optimal trade policies for respective countries. (Ono and Ikeda [1996], Kluwer) (3) The effects of fiscal policies is crucially affected by the tax system (a lump-sum tax or a consumption tax) that finances fiscal spending. (Ono and Ikeda [1996], J.E.)4.A microeconomic aspect of international spill-over effects of economic policies (Ono) : The welfare effects of opening trade, entry restrictions, and R&D subsidies are examined in the context of oligopoly. (Lahiri and Ono [1995 ; IER,Kluwer, and J.E.R]) It is shown that the welfare implication crucially depends on whether oligopolists are symmetric or asymmetric. For example, in an asymmetric oligopoly helping more efficient firms strategically tends to benefit a country. Less

1.小野停滞理论的启示：（1）在不满足的财富偏好存在的情况下，即使消费者是完全理性的，也会发生持续的资产膨胀（或泡沫）。(Ono，Iwanami）。作为对传统的总需求-总供给分析的替代，我们开发了一种新的分析工具。它是用来建立一个动态基础的菲利普斯曲线。(two《经济评论》的文章）。(3)小野的封闭经济停滞模型被扩展到两国模型。研究发现，一个拥有大量外国资产的国家往往会面临持续的失业。2.不满足流动性偏好的经验证据（Ono和Yoshida）：使用美国消费者的PSID数据和非参数方法，我们发现不满足的流动性偏好假设是积极的。3.累积外债的动态（Ikeda and Ono）：使用国际时间偏好差异导致外债积累的模型 ...更多信息我们已经研究了改善外部失衡的经济政策的福利效应，例如储蓄限制政策（例如，资本税），贸易政策（进口配额，VER），财政政策。其中，我们得到以下结论：（1）这些改善外部失衡的政策往往是有害的福利。(2)促进债务国出口和促进债权国进口可以成为各自国家的最优贸易政策。(Ono（3）财政政策的效果，在很大程度上取决于作为财政支出资金来源的税制（一次总付税或消费税）。(Ono和Ikeda [1996]，J.E.）4.经济政策的国际溢出效应的微观经济方面（小野）：在寡头垄断的背景下，研究了开放贸易、限制进入和R&D补贴的福利效应。（Lahiri和Ono [1995 ; IER，Kluwer和J.E.R]）研究表明，福利含义关键取决于寡头是对称的还是非对称的。例如，在不对称的寡头垄断中，从战略上帮助效率更高的公司往往有利于一个国家。少