Agent-based Inverse Analysis of Market Potentials for Carnot Batteries considering Uncertain Energy System Pathways (AIM for Carnot)

考虑不确定能源系统路径的卡诺电池市场潜力的基于代理的逆分析（AIM for Carnot）

• 批准号: 526233915
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/526233915?language=en
• 关键词: Agent; based; Inverse; Analysis; Market

This project aims at investigating promising CB configurations, the potential role of CBs in future energy systems, as well as economic incentives and barriers for a successful market entry. As technical CB development is still in progress, energy economics can provide an orientation towards promising directions. This motivates a novel inverse approach to investigate the role of CBs in future energy markets. Such an inverse approach is new to energy market modellers and brings challenges with it. Hence, we aim at depicting CBs in an agent-based market model depicting Germany and its neighbours to identify economically attractive technical configurations and their use in the system, to derive potential profit-risk structures for CBs as an investment option, and to assess inevitable techno-economic trade-offs from a market perspective. The major challenge consists of the adequate depiction of the market functioning through individual economic decisions. A working programme consisting of six working packages addresses this challenge and thereby deploys an agent-based electricity market simulation. Whereas optimization approaches usually identify desirable investment and dispatch decisions in a normative manner taking a central planner perspective, the agent-based approach is not dependent on generally assuming perfect foresight and perfect coordination. It is able to depict the market structure and market participants’ individual decisions. The key objectives of the project are threefold: On the one hand, the goal is to integrate the inverse engineering character into agent-based energy system modelling by modelling techno-economic characteristics as decision variables of the agents. This requires extensive methodological developments, both in the short- and in the long-term decision-making of agents. On the other hand, the technical representation of the CB’s characteristics requires model enhancements. Particularly the differentiation, interplay and potential profit cannibalization of competing flexibility options lead to challenges, as many degrees of freedom complicate convergence, if the techno-economic properties are very similar or agents face immanent uncertainties in their strategic decisions. The third objective is to develop a framework for assessing profit-risk structures of promising technical configurations, based on mean-reverting and path-dependent energy system uncertainties. Path-dependent uncertainties such as the development of new technologies or renewable capacity expansion require endogenous treatment in the simulation model. We propose extension of the existing agent-based model to derive, among others, dispatch curves for different CB configurations under varying market circumstances, as well as profit-risk structures for CBs from an individual market participant’s perspective.

该项目旨在研究有前途的CB配置、CB在未来能源系统中的潜在作用，以及成功进入市场的经济激励和障碍。由于CB技术开发仍在进行中，能源经济学可以为有希望的方向提供指导。这激发了一种新颖的逆向方法来研究CB在未来能源市场中的作用。这种逆向方法对于能源市场建模者来说是全新的，并且带来了挑战。因此，我们的目标是在描述德国及其邻国的基于代理的市场模型中描述CB，以确定具有经济吸引力的技术配置及其在系统中的使用，得出CB作为投资选择的潜在利润风险结构，并从市场角度评估不可避免的技术经济权衡。主要挑战包括通过个人经济决策充分描述市场运作。由六个工作包组成的工作程序解决了这一挑战，从而部署了基于代理的电力市场模拟。虽然优化方法通常从中央规划者的角度以规范的方式确定理想的投资和调度决策，但基于代理的方法并不依赖于通常假设完美的远见和完美的协调。它能够描绘市场结构和市场参与者的个人决策。该项目的主要目标有三个：一方面，目标是通过将技术经济特征建模为代理的决策变量，将逆向工程特征集成到基于代理的能源系统建模中。这需要在代理人的短期和长期决策中进行广泛的方法论发展。另一方面，CB特征的技术表示需要模型增强。特别是，竞争性灵活性选项的差异化、相互作用和潜在利润蚕食会带来挑战，因为如果技术经济属性非常相似，或者代理人在战略决策中面临内在的不确定性，那么许多自由度会使收敛变得复杂。第三个目标是开发一个基于均值回归和路径依赖的能源系统不确定性的框架，用于评估有前途的技术配置的利润风险结构。新技术的开发或可再生能源产能扩张等路径依赖的不确定性需要在模拟模型中进行内生处理。我们建议扩展现有的基于代理的模型，以得出不同市场环境下不同CB配置的调度曲线，以及从单个市场参与者的角度得出CB的利润风险结构。