発達した温帯低気圧に伴う強風の予測に関する研究

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Extratropical cyclones sometimes cause severe high wind disaster especially in winter season. One of such disasters was the high wind disaster in northern Japan on February 22, 1994. During the passage of the extratropical cyclone, there were three accidents in traffics, two for the railway and the other for bus transportation. The meteorological conditions and the associated high wind were intensively examined in this study.The winter season tracks of extratropical cyclone around Japan were examined using surface weather charts. It is found that the northern Japan Sea and the Pacific Ocean along the Japan Islands were two major paths of extratropical cyclones. It is also found that the later region is the place where the extratropical cyclones sometimes develop explosively.The methodology to evaluate the high wind associated with extratropical cyclone wasinvestigated. The surface wind is first estimated from the surface pressure pattern with consideration. The effect of topography is considered by using a mass-consistent wind model. A more sophisticated methodology which use dynamical meso-scale numerical model can introduce the effect of turbulence.