Research on extreme weather and the related natural hazards using CMIP3 Global warming data archive

对IPCC 5，除了对全球变暖本身进行气象和气候评估外，还需要对灾害的大小进行评估。利用IPCC4数据存档，采用动态降尺度方法进行了拟增温实验。在台风灾害评价中，通过考虑不同的台风路径来寻找“可能的最大灾害”。将此方法应用于既有台风的拟增温实验和强台风的动态降尺度。对于衍生的灾情，分别进行了河道流量、风暴潮和大风灾害的评估。

It is required to evaluate the magnitude of disasters in addition to the meteorological and climatological evaluation of global warming itself toward IPCC 5. Using data archive of IPCC4 pseudo-warming experiments are conducted with dynamic downscaling approach. In evaluating typhoon induced hazards "possible maximum hazard" is searched by considering a variety of typhoon track. This is applied to the pseudo-warming experiment for existing typhoon and for the dynamic downscaling for a severe typhoon case. For derived severer cases river discharge, storm surge and high-wind disaster are evaluated.