RESEARCH ON PORITICAL PROGNOSTICATION BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF THE FIVE PLANETS : JUPITER,MARS,SATURN,VENUS,AND MARCURY IN ANCIENT CHINA

将1973年在古墓中发现的“五行占（***）”与“甘世占（***）”、“十中占（***）”、“十中占（***）”、“怀南子（***）”、“汉书（***）”、“后汉书（***）”、“君书（**）”相比较，可以看出“五行占”与其他占卜相吻合。这意味着木星、火星、土星、金星和马丘利这五颗行星在预言中的作用在汉朝早期就已经确立。“五行战”、“干始战”、“始始战”被认为是吉兆，但西汉六百年来的编年史上很少有吉兆。大多数预言的是厄运：内战、饥荒、干旱、瘟疫等。虽然这五个行星都是人格化的，但实际上，除了火星，这四个行星并没有履行先知的职能。这是因为五大行星的占星术已经成为一种固定的政治批评手段。也就是说，占星术和利用五星的预言，在失去了作为算命的合理性之后，演变成了对载易说的批评。在中国古代，批判建制派很好地利用了前科学时代的天文学，通过不科学的五行预言，在这个社会的人们中发挥了很好的作用。这为中国古代前科学天文学赋予了另一种意义，也证明了中国古代不可言喻的思想在当时无疑是理性的。

Comparing "Wu-xing-zhan (***) ", whitch was discoverd in an ancient tomb in 1973, with "Gan-shi-zhan (***) ", "Shi-shi-zhan (***) ", "Shi-ji (**) ", "Huai-nan-zi (***) ", "Han-syu (**) ", "Hou-Han-shu (***) ", and "Jun-shu (**) ", it has become clear that divination "Wu-xing-zhan" coincides with the others. This means that the role of the five planets : Jupiter, Mars, Saturn, Venus, and Marcury in prognostication had already become establisyed in the early years of the Han (*) Dynasty."Wu-xing-zhan", "Gan-shi-zhan", and "Shi-shi-zhan" are read as good omens, but there are few good omens in the chronicles for more six hundred years from the Western Han. Most tell of bad fortune : civil wars, famine, droughts, plagues, etc.Although all of the five plamets are personified, as a practical matter the four planets other than Mars did not fulfill function as a prophets. This was because the astrology of five planets had already become fixed as a means of political criticism. That is to say, astrology and prognostication using the five planets had evolved into criticism of the Establishment of Zai-yi-shuo (***) after it had lost its own rationle as fortune telling.In ancient China, criticizing the Establishment made made good use of pre-scientific astronomy, and through unscientific prognostication based on the five planets functioned well among this society of people. This gives another meaning to pre-scientific astronomy in ancient China, and it proves that ineffable thought in ancient China was no doubt rational at that time.