RESEARCH ON PORITICAL PROGNOSTICATIONS BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF METEORS AND COMETS IN ANCIENT CHINA

这项研究是基于对彗星和流星的观测记录产生的观测记录。补充了一系列揭示中国古代天文学与科举政治关系的研究。文章试图说明中国古代的“天命论”对政治和社会发展的推动作用，并重新评价董仲舒的“在易论”在中国古代社会理论史上的现实意义。在中国古代，彗星和流星的出现和消失是五行不规则运动引起的持续动荡的主要关注点。古代统治者对这种天文现象不能不给予特别的关注，因为当时人们认为自然界与人类社会之间存在着一种相互作用，上天在天空中显示了对人类世界政治的反应。这也是巧合 ...更多信息 这与中国古代天文学不是作为一门科学，而是作为一门民族占星学而发展的事实是不相符的。董仲舒所倡导的“载易说”，作为与被奉为国教的儒家学说相对立的理论，自汉代以来对中国社会产生了巨大的影响。然而，“载易说”仅凭其文学性是不可能被社会所充分相信和广泛接受的。理解一个理论的文献并不必然导致对这个理论的认识。对于统治者来说，只有将神秘的天文现象与真实的社会政治事件联系起来，并作出令人信服的解释，才能吸引他们。然而，东汉末年，在“陈微论”兴盛、“载一论”失去原有批判精神的同时，对彗星、流星出现的新阐释，继承了“载一说”的批判精神。它为人类社会敲响了警钟，就像“星座”在五个行星上的作用一样。少

This research is based on the records of the prognostications generated from the records of the observations on comets and meteors. It supplements a series of researches that have revealed the relations of ancient Chinese astronomy and the politics of the prognostications. It tends to illustrate that ancient Chinese prognostication stimulated the development of the politics and the society, and reevaluate the realistic significance of Dong Zhongshu's "Zai-yi theory" in the history of ancient Chinese social theories.In ancient China, the appearance and disappearance of comets and meteors were the main concerns in the persistent agitation caused by the irregular movements of the Five Planets. Ancient rulers could not help paying special attention on such astronomical phenomenon because at that time, it was believed that there existed an interaction between the nature and human society and the Heaven showed on the sky its reactions to the politic of the human world. This is also coinciden … More t with the fact that astronomy was developed as national astrology rather than as a scientific field in ancient China.It is commonly acknowledged that "Zai-yi theory", advocated by Dong Zhongshu as the antithesis of Confucianism which had been legitimized as the national religion, has imposed great impacts on Chinese society since Han. However, "Zai-yi theory" could not have been fully believed and widely adopted in society only with its literature. Understanding the literature of a theory does not necessarily lead to the recognition of thistheory. For the rulers, a theory could not attract them until it could make plausible connection between and provide convincing explanations of the mysterious astronomical phenomenon and the political and social events in the real world.However, at the end of the East Han, while "Chen-wei theory" was flourishing and "Zai-yi theory" was losing its original critical spirit, new prognostications on the appearance of comets and meteors carried on the critical spirit of "Zai-yi theory". It served as an alarm bell for human society, just as how the "prognostications" attending the Five Planets had functioned. Less