Study on Evaluation/Projection Model for Medium/Long Term Planning in East Asian Countries

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Focusing on China, I have developed CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) models of development planning and policies for the evaluation and projection. I have applied the models to the analysis and projection of growth, environment, trade liberalization and regional development in China. Starting from model of Vietnam, I have applied similar models also to Thailand and Indonesia, though not fully.The research report includes three major outcomes from the methodological point of view. First, a CGE model of China is now available which can be used for long term simulations up to 2010-2020 with distinguishable 10-35 industries constructed on the basis of the latest 1997 input-output table. Second, a two-region CGE model is now available which is an extension of the natural CGE model above. It can be extended easily to more than two regions and is useful for the analysis of regional problems. Third, a new method of estimation is now available for capital stocks and total factor productivity (TFP) in both national and regional levels. Application of the new method in industry level is possible but with data constraint.The next step of research is a comprehensive analysis based on the CGE modeling above of the three major problems which China faces now and also in the 21st century : sustainable growth, macro-control, and balanced regional development.