The Study on Predictable Information of Business Failure

企业失败的可预测信息研究

• 批准号: 09630143
• 负责人: SHIRATA Yoshiko
• 金额: $ 0.32万
• 依托单位: Tsukuba College of Technology Japan
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1997 至 1998
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-09630143/
• 关键词: Business Failure; Prediction Model; Amendments of Financial Statements; 線形判別モデル; 財務数値と企業実態の乖離; 財務指標

This study presents some empirical results of a study regarding financial ratios as predictors of Japanese corporate failure, evidenced by bankruptcy A few empirical studies of corporate bankruptcy in Japan have been undertaken. However, the results of these studies are not generalizable, due to the limited size of their samples. In contrast, this study proposes a generalizable bankruptcy prediction model based on observations of 686 firms which went bankrupt, and 300 non-bankrupt firms which were extracted from 107, 034 non-bankrupt firms by random sampling, The model proposed in this study is a universal model which is independent of industry and size. The study proves that the model can predict bankruptcy with more than 84% accuracy regardless of industry and size.This study also proposes a special instruction to amend the financial statements of the firm. That instruction makes the financial statements to reveal the financial position of the firm more accurately.

本研究提出了一些实证研究的结果，关于财务比率作为预测日本企业失败，证明了破产的一些实证研究，在日本的企业破产已经进行。然而，由于样本量有限，这些研究的结果并不具有普遍性。与此相反，本研究基于686家破产企业和从107034家非破产企业中随机抽取的300家非破产企业的观察数据，提出了一个通用的破产预测模型，该模型是一个与行业和规模无关的通用模型。研究结果显示，本研究所建立之破产预测模式，不论产业与规模，其预测破产之准确率均在84%以上，并提出修正财务报表之特别指示。这一指示使财务报表更准确地反映了公司的财务状况。

项目成果

白田佳子: "企業倒産予知情報の形成に有用な財務指標の識別と倒産判別モデルの構築" 危険と管理. 第27号. 69-85 (1997)

白田芳子：“有助于形成企业破产预测信息的财务指标的识别和破产判别模型的构建”《风险与管理》第27期。69-85（1997）。

Shirata,C.Y.: "Financial Ratios as Predictors of Bankruptcy in Japan: An Empirical Research" Proceedings of The Second Asian Pacific Interdisciplinary Research in Accounting Conference. 437-445 (1998)

Shirata,C.Y.：“财务比率作为日本破产的预测因素：实证研究”第二届亚太会计跨学科研究会议论文集。