The Study on Predictable Information of Business Failure

本研究提出了一些关于财务比率作为日本公司破产预测因子的实证研究结果，并以日本公司破产为证据。然而，由于样本规模有限，这些研究的结果不能一概而论。本研究通过随机抽样从107,034家非破产企业中抽取了686家破产企业和300家非破产企业进行观察，提出了一个通用的破产预测模型，该模型是一个独立于行业和规模的通用模型。研究证明，无论行业和规模如何，该模型预测破产的准确率都在84%以上。本研究还提出了一项修改公司财务报表的特别指示。这一指示使财务报表更准确地揭示了公司的财务状况。

This study presents some empirical results of a study regarding financial ratios as predictors of Japanese corporate failure, evidenced by bankruptcy A few empirical studies of corporate bankruptcy in Japan have been undertaken. However, the results of these studies are not generalizable, due to the limited size of their samples. In contrast, this study proposes a generalizable bankruptcy prediction model based on observations of 686 firms which went bankrupt, and 300 non-bankrupt firms which were extracted from 107, 034 non-bankrupt firms by random sampling, The model proposed in this study is a universal model which is independent of industry and size. The study proves that the model can predict bankruptcy with more than 84% accuracy regardless of industry and size.This study also proposes a special instruction to amend the financial statements of the firm. That instruction makes the financial statements to reveal the financial position of the firm more accurately.