Relationship between Changes in the Economic Environment and Financial Ratios: Empirical Study of Bankrupt Firms

在本研究中，通过对破产公司财务比率的时间序列观察，阐明了各财务比率与经济环境变化的关系。结果表明，一些财务比率受到经济环境变化的影响，也有一些财务比率的数字随着时间段的变化而波动很大，尽管还没有充分证实它们是否直接受到经济环境变化的影响。这项研究还发现了不受经济环境变化影响的财务比率的存在，以及濒临破产的公司特有的趋势。一些人批评说，试图在单变量环境下提取对破产检测具有统计意义的比率，与比弗[1967]的S的研究工作没有什么不同。然而，由于研究人员专注于构建一个模型，并使用了可能呈现反向分布模式的财务比率，这与相关理论相矛盾，取决于经济环境的一些变化，就像阿尔特曼模型[1968年]的情况，关于每个比率所包含的特征的分析到目前为止被过度忽视。这项研究揭示了统计上的显著与会计学上的显著不同。

In this research, the relation between each financial ratio and changes in the economic environment has been elucidated through time-series observations of financial ratios in bankrupt companies. As a result, it has been demonstrated that some financial ratios are affected by changes in the economic environment and also that there are financial ratios in which figures fluctuate considerably depending on the time period, although it is yet to be adequately confirmed if they are directly affected by any change in the economic environment.This research also uncovered the existence of financial ratios that are not affected by changes in the economic environment and also that distinctively present tendencies specific to companies near bankruptcy. Some criticize that an attempt to extract ratios that are statistically significant for bankruptcy detection in a univariate setting is not any different from Beaver[1967]'s research work. As, however, researchers have concentrated much on constructing a model and have used financial ratios that may show reverse distribution patterns, which contradict relevant theories, depending on some changes in the economic environment, as was the case in the Altman model [1968], analysis with regards to characteristics contained by each ratio has been unduly neglected up to now. This research revealed being statistically significant is different from being significant in the light of accounting.