Relationship between Changes in the Economic Environment and Financial Ratios: Empirical Study of Bankrupt Firms

经济环境变化与财务比率的关系：破产企业的实证研究

• 批准号: 12630161
• 负责人: SHIRATA Yoshiko
• 金额: $ 2.18万
• 依托单位: Nihon University, College of Economies (2001-2002)Tsukuba College of Technology (2000)
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2000 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12630161/
• 关键词: Financial Ratios; Economic Environment; Bankruptcy Prediction; 交差相関; 財務データ分布; 企業倒産; 時系列変化; 得意傾向

In this research, the relation between each financial ratio and changes in the economic environment has been elucidated through time-series observations of financial ratios in bankrupt companies. As a result, it has been demonstrated that some financial ratios are affected by changes in the economic environment and also that there are financial ratios in which figures fluctuate considerably depending on the time period, although it is yet to be adequately confirmed if they are directly affected by any change in the economic environment.This research also uncovered the existence of financial ratios that are not affected by changes in the economic environment and also that distinctively present tendencies specific to companies near bankruptcy. Some criticize that an attempt to extract ratios that are statistically significant for bankruptcy detection in a univariate setting is not any different from Beaver[1967]'s research work. As, however, researchers have concentrated much on constructing a model and have used financial ratios that may show reverse distribution patterns, which contradict relevant theories, depending on some changes in the economic environment, as was the case in the Altman model [1968], analysis with regards to characteristics contained by each ratio has been unduly neglected up to now. This research revealed being statistically significant is different from being significant in the light of accounting.

本研究通过对破产企业的财务比率进行时间序列观测，阐明了各财务比率与经济环境变化的关系。因此，已经证明，一些财务比率受到经济环境变化的影响，也有一些财务比率的数字根据时间段而大幅波动，尽管它们是否直接受到经济环境变化的影响还有待充分证实。这项研究还发现，存在不受经济环境变化影响的财务比率。经济环境，以及濒临破产的公司特有的明显趋势。有人批评说，试图提取在单变量环境中对破产检测有统计意义的比率与Beaver[1967]的研究工作没有任何不同。但是，研究者们的注意力主要集中在模型的构建上，如Altman模型[1968]那样，使用了根据经济环境的某些变化而可能呈现与理论相悖的逆向分布的财务比率，因此，对各比率所包含的特征的分析一直被忽视。这项研究表明，统计上的显著性不同于会计上的显著性。

项目成果

白田佳子: "企業会計制度へのゴーイング・コンサーン規定導入に関わる検討課題-企業継続能力評価への倒産予知モデルの援用-"『経済集誌』日本大学経済学研究会. 第74巻第3号. 241-255 (2001)

白田芳子：《企业会计制度引入持续经营条款应考虑的问题——破产预测模型在企业连续性能力评估中的应用》《经济杂志》，日本大学经济研究组，第74卷，第1期。 3. 241-255（2001）

Shirata, C.Y.: "The Relationship between Business Failures and Decision Making by Manager; Empirical Analysis"Proceedings of 13^<th> Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues. 20-23 (2001)

Shirata, C.Y.：“企业失败与经理决策之间的关系；实证分析”第 13 届亚太国际会计问题会议论文集。

Cindy Yoshiko Shirata: "Reliability of Financial Ratio Analysis : The Empirical Study of Bankrupt Firms in Japan"Proceeding of 2^<nd> Asian Academic Accounting Association Conference. 16 (2001)

Cindy Yoshiko Shirata：“财务比率分析的可靠性：日本破产企业的实证研究”第二届亚洲学术会计协会会议论文集。

白田佳子: "企業の継続能力概念と企業倒産予測-ゴーイング・コンサーン規定の導入に向けて-"『企業会計』中央経済社. 11月号. 118-126 (2001)

白田芳子：“企业持续能力概念和企业破产预测——走向持续经营规则——”企业会计，中央经济社11月号（2001年）。

Shirata, C.Y.: "Relationship between changes in the economic environment And financial ratios: empirical study of bankrupt firms"Proceedings of 14^<th> Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues. #107. (2002)

Shirata, C.Y.：“经济环境变化与财务比率之间的关系：破产企业的实证研究”第14届亚太国际会计问题会议论文集。