The world food demand and supply in 21th century and regional strategies of agricultural development in Japan

1996年和1998年的研究内容如下：我们开发了一种新的世界粮食供需模式。对于一些农产品，我们用这个模型模拟了未来的市场。此外，采用投入产出表对日本食糖市场进行了区域分析。因此，我们发现亚洲的计划生育和支持粮食供应增加的技术进步对日本的稳定粮食供应非常重要。2)为了提出区域农业发展战略，我们对几种类型的创新者进行了实地研究，并分析了收集的数据。研究发现，先进的农场管理能力、强有力的领导和支持体系对区域农业的发展至关重要。3)考虑到世界粮食问题，我们研究了未来的政策和制度，使日本农业生动起来。因此，我们发现对日本农业来说，建立可持续发展的农村社会并实现从发展到保护的范式转变是非常重要的。

Our research contents in 1996 and 1998 is following.1) We have developed a new model of world food demand and supply. For some agricultural products, we have simulated future markets with this model. In addition, regional analysis for sugar market in Japan was done by input-output tables. As a result, we finded that the birth control in Asia and supports for technical progress of making food-supply increase is very important for stable food supply in Japan.2) To propose regional strategies of agricultural development, we have implemented field researches focusing on several types of innovators and analysed collecting data. As a result, we finded that advanced farm management abilities, strong leadership and it's support systems are very important for the development of regional agriculture.3) Keeping world food problems in mind, we have investigated future policies and institutions to make Japanese agriculture vivid. As a result, we founded that it is very important for Japanese agriculture to make scenarios of building up sustainable rural society and to make paradigm shift from development to conservation.