The world food demand and supply in 21th century and regional strategies of agricultural development in Japan

我们在1996年和1998年的研究内容如下：1）我们开发了一个新的世界粮食需求和供应模型。对于一些农产品，我们已经模拟了未来的市场与此模型。此外，还利用投入产出表对日本食糖市场进行了区域分析。因此，我们发现，亚洲的生育控制和支持增加粮食供应的技术进步对日本稳定的粮食供应非常重要。2）为了提出区域农业发展战略，我们对几种类型的创新者进行了实地调查，并对收集的数据进行了分析。结果发现，先进的农场管理能力、强有力的领导及其支持系统对地区农业的发展至关重要。3）着眼于世界粮食问题，我们对未来的政策和制度进行了研究，以使日本农业更加活跃。因此，我们发现，日本农业的重要性是建立可持续的农村社会的场景，并使范式从发展到保护。

Our research contents in 1996 and 1998 is following.1) We have developed a new model of world food demand and supply. For some agricultural products, we have simulated future markets with this model. In addition, regional analysis for sugar market in Japan was done by input-output tables. As a result, we finded that the birth control in Asia and supports for technical progress of making food-supply increase is very important for stable food supply in Japan.2) To propose regional strategies of agricultural development, we have implemented field researches focusing on several types of innovators and analysed collecting data. As a result, we finded that advanced farm management abilities, strong leadership and it's support systems are very important for the development of regional agriculture.3) Keeping world food problems in mind, we have investigated future policies and institutions to make Japanese agriculture vivid. As a result, we founded that it is very important for Japanese agriculture to make scenarios of building up sustainable rural society and to make paradigm shift from development to conservation.