A STUDY OF PREDICTING HUMAN PHYSICAL GROWTH AND JUVENILE DISEASES WITH AGING

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We have continuously collected the longitudinal data for Hiroshima Growth Study samples which are the measurements of physical growth and chemical measurements of blood serum obtained in cooperation with the Asa Medical Association. After some data screening, longitudinal records of 2364 children have been made machine-readable.For 793 boys and 483 girls, we proposed two new growth models of height from birth to adulthood representing mid-growth spurt. These models are proposed from the fundamental growth model on the basis of degree of relative maturity. These growth models are better fitted than JPA2 and Count-Gompertz growth models being fitted well to individual growth records at present. However, we have to study basic research for mid-growth spurt.It is an established theory that adult height is independent of menarcheal age. When we control menarcheal height, the partial correlation coefficient between adult height and menarcheal age is negative and large. The similar relationships hold for any two biological phenomenon such as peak height Velocity, minimum height velocity, mid-growth spurt and menarche. These results are very useful for predicting the future growth and obesity, and we can also predict juvenile diseases with aging. We found a relationship between secular change of alkaline-phosphatase (or cholesterol) and growth velocity curve, but we -can't obtain any concrete results. For collecting longitudinal growth and medical records, we have developed a computer software to construct data bases on cohort studies for inexperienced medical doctors and nurses.