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Studies on Household Behavior based on Household Surveys

基于住户调查的家庭行为研究

基本信息

批准号：
08630028
负责人：
YOSHIZOE Yasuto
金额：
$ 1.28万
依托单位：
Aoyama Gakuin University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1996
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1996 至 1997
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

As for the pconsumption function, two characteristics have been pointed out. The fist is that the cross-section consumption function based on macro-economic data has been stable for a long period of time, approximately a line from the origin, that is, C=bY.The second is that the consumption function for micro-data, which is also approximated by a straight line with positive intercept, C=a+bY(a>0) and this intercept has been increasing as time gies on. Economic interpretation for these phenomena is so-called "relative income hypothesis."We have found, contrary to the above statement, that cross-section consumption function has been quite stable in the post-war period in Japan. Naimely, the relationship between real income and real consumption is almost a straight line with exception for several years around 1973. This fact strongly conflicts with the traditional relative-income-hypothesis. Hence the following two problems arise :(1) what mechanism kept cross-section consumption function stable, and (2) why consumer behaved quite differently around "oil-crisis" period.As for the second point, Funaoka's paper, that discusses the effects of expected inflation on consumer's behavior, seems to give a theoretical background. Yet, if we apply Funaoka's estimation procedure now, we cannot obtain a similar result due to strong collinearity among economic variables.In our research we tried to clarify the recent consumption structure using household survey data, in particular micro-data from Households Income and Expenditure Survey. We showed a possibility of resolving the paradox by applying a processing of the time series data, combined with a model that incorporates the effects of the assets.Another contribution we made was a survey and theoretical examination of "bootstra method, " as one of the most promising computer-intensive methods that can be applied to econmic analyzes.

对于消费函数，指出了两个特点。第一种是基于宏观经济数据的截面消费函数在较长时间内是稳定的，距离原点约为一条直线，即C=bY。第二个是微数据的消费函数，它也近似为一条正截距的直线，C=a+ by (a>0)，这个截距随着时间的推移而增加。对这些现象的经济学解释是所谓的“相对收入假说”。我们发现，与上述说法相反，日本战后的横截面消费函数是相当稳定的。也就是说，除了1973年前后的几年，实际收入和实际消费之间的关系几乎是一条直线。这一事实与传统的相对收入假说强烈冲突。这就产生了以下两个问题：(1)是什么机制使横截面消费函数保持稳定？(2)为什么在“石油危机”时期，消费者的行为会有如此大的不同？至于第二点，船冈的论文讨论了预期通货膨胀对消费者行为的影响，似乎提供了理论背景。然而，如果我们现在应用Funaoka的估计程序，由于经济变量之间的强共线性，我们无法得到类似的结果。在我们的研究中，我们试图利用住户调查数据，特别是来自住户收入和支出调查的微观数据来厘清近期的消费结构。我们展示了通过对时间序列数据进行处理并结合包含资产影响的模型来解决悖论的可能性。我们所做的另一个贡献是对“bootstra方法”的调查和理论检验，它是应用于经济分析的最有前途的计算机密集型方法之一。