Regional Disaster Prevention Planning Guide based on Seismic Risk Assessment for Earthquakes Occurring Near Urban Districts

近场地震给城市化大城市带来了灾难性的灾难。地方政府必须在地震危害和风险评估的基础上制定区域减灾计划，以保护建筑环境和人口。以札幌市为例，也就是我们的研究对象，很难确定影响到人口稠密地区的近场地震的震源参数。研究不确定性参数对风险评估的影响是十分必要的，本文强调了城市附近可能发生的地震对震害多元估计的重要性。注意到对所有损失估计案例采取措施的难度，从地震工程学和政治学的角度举例说明了减灾方案优先次序的决策规则。最后，将T·L·萨蒂提出的层次分析方法应用于防震规划优先措施的决策。

Near field earthquakes bring catastrophic disasters in large urbanized cities. Local governments must prepare the regional mitigation plans on the basis of seismic hazard and risk estimation in order to protect the building environment and the population. In case of Sapporo City, that is our research target, it is difficult to specify the source parameters of near field earthquakes affected the populated area. It is necessary to investigate the influence of indefinite parameters upon the risk assessment.In this paper, we enforced an importance of the plural estimation of seismic damages by probable earthquakes occurring near the urban area. Paying attention to the difficulties of taking measures against all of the cases on estimated damages, we gave an example of the rule of making decision about the priority of mitigation plans from the point of view of earthquake engineering and political science. Finally, we applied the Analytical Hierarchical Approach proposed by T.L.Saaty to decision-making on priority measures for earthquake prevention planning.