Theoretical and empirical analysis on the relation between labor force aging and economic growth

劳动力老龄化与经济增长关系的理论与实证分析

• 批准号: 10630091
• 负责人: SAKURAGAWA Masaya
• 金额: $ 0.83万
• 依托单位: Nagoya City University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1998 至 1999
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-10630091/
• 关键词: labor force aging; economic growth; population growth; human capital; 少子化; 人口成長率; 経済成長率

The aim of this research is to analyze theoretical and empirical mechanism through which decline in fertility, population growth, and aging in the labor force are interacted with each other. In "Roudousya no koureika no motarasumono" (Oikonomika, 1998), I and co-authors show that an advance of the aging in the labor force, captured by an increase in the ratio of old workers relative to young workers, deters investment in human capital and hence economic growth. This model provide an interesting insight concerning the linkage between population growth and economic growth that differ from the implication from the standard growth model. In "Aging in the Labor Force and Slowdown of Future Economic Growth in Japan" (Oikonomika, 2000), I and co-authors find by simulation that the anticipated advance of the labor force aging reduces the level of per-capita consumption by 21.1% in 2055 in the standard case with the Cobb-Douglas production technology when the adverse growth effect is present.

本研究的目的是分析生育率下降、人口增长和劳动力老龄化相互作用的理论和实证机制。在“Roudousya no koureika no motarasumono”（Oikonomika，1998）中，我和合著者表明，劳动力老龄化的进展（表现为老年工人相对年轻工人的比例增加）阻碍了人力资本投资，从而阻碍了经济增长。该模型提供了关于人口增长和经济增长之间联系的有趣见解，这与标准增长模型的含义不同。在“日本劳动力老龄化和未来经济增长放缓”（Oikonomika，2000）中，我和合著者通过模拟发现，在柯布-道格拉斯生产技术的标准情况下，当存在不利增长效应时，劳动力老龄化的预期提前会使2055年的人均消费水平降低21.1%。

项目成果

橋本 浩幸、森田 雄一、外谷 秀樹、櫻川 昌哉: "「労働者の高齢化のもたらすもの」"オイコノミカ. 34. 61-70 (1998)

Hiroyuki Hashimoto、Yuichi Morita、Hideki Sotoya、Masaya Sakurakawa：“工人老龄化带来了什么”Oikonomica。 34. 61-70 (1998)

H. Hashimoto, Y. Morita, M. Sakuragawa, and H. Toya: "Aging in the Labor force, Population Growth, and Economic Growth : Theory and Cross-Country Evidence"Oikonomika. 36 (forthcoming).

H. Hashimoto、Y. Morita、M. Sakurakawa 和 H. Toya：“劳动力老龄化、人口增长和经济增长：理论和跨国证据”Oikonomika。

橋本浩幸、森田雄一、櫻川昌哉、外谷英樹: "労働者の高齢化のもたらすもの"オイコノミカ. 34. 67-77 (1998)

Hiroyuki Hashimoto、Yuichi Morita、Masaya Sakurakawa、Hideki Sotoya：“劳动力老龄化带来了什么”Oikonomica。 34. 67-77 (1998)

櫻川昌哉、牧野達治: "Aging in the Labor Force and Slowdown of Future Economic Growth in Japan"オイコノミカ. 36(刊行予定). (2000)

Masaya Sakurakawa、Tatsuharu Makino：“日本劳动力老龄化和未来经济增长放缓”《Oikonomica》（即将出版）。

橋本 浩幸、森田 雄一、外谷 秀樹、櫻川 昌哉: "Aging in the labor Force, Population Growth, and Economic Growth : theory and Cross- Country Evidence"日本経済学会. 36. (1999)

Hiroyuki Hashimoto、Yuichi Morita、Hideki Sotoya、Masaya Sakurakawa：“劳动力老龄化、人口增长和经济增长：理论和跨国证据”日本经济协会 36。（1999 年）。