Theoretical and empirical analysis on the relation between labor force aging and economic growth

本研究旨在分析生育率下降、人口增长和劳动力老龄化三者相互作用的理论和实证机制。在“Roudousya no koureika no motarasumono”（Oikonomika, 1998）中，我和合著者表明，劳动力老龄化的推进（表现为老年工人相对于年轻工人的比例增加）阻碍了对人力资本的投资，从而阻碍了经济增长。这个模型对人口增长和经济增长之间的联系提供了一个有趣的见解，这与标准增长模型的含义不同。在“劳动力老龄化与日本未来经济增长放缓”（Oikonomika, 2000）中，我和合著者通过模拟发现，当存在不利增长效应时，在采用柯布-道格拉斯生产技术的标准情况下，劳动力老龄化的预期推进使2055年人均消费水平降低了21.1%。

The aim of this research is to analyze theoretical and empirical mechanism through which decline in fertility, population growth, and aging in the labor force are interacted with each other. In "Roudousya no koureika no motarasumono" (Oikonomika, 1998), I and co-authors show that an advance of the aging in the labor force, captured by an increase in the ratio of old workers relative to young workers, deters investment in human capital and hence economic growth. This model provide an interesting insight concerning the linkage between population growth and economic growth that differ from the implication from the standard growth model. In "Aging in the Labor Force and Slowdown of Future Economic Growth in Japan" (Oikonomika, 2000), I and co-authors find by simulation that the anticipated advance of the labor force aging reduces the level of per-capita consumption by 21.1% in 2055 in the standard case with the Cobb-Douglas production technology when the adverse growth effect is present.