Network equilibrium analysis on international regular container cargo transport and policy evaluation of port development/management

本研究旨在建立国际集装箱货物运输市场均衡模型，并对港口发展/管理政策进行评价。首先，我们建立了由承运人和托运人两个经济主体组成的均衡模型。在该模型中，假设在存在托运人纳什均衡的情况下，承运人的目标是使其运营成本最小。利用所建立的模型对未来亚太-欧洲集装箱运输网络进行了预测，网络的形状为轴辐式网络，即大型船舶和转运货物集中在几个大港口。特别是汉新、釜山和新加坡口岸，更是跨洲运输的门户口岸。此外，据了解，阪神和釜山之间存在着激烈的竞争，因此，这种竞争在各自的港口管理政策中得到了强调，比如港口吞吐能力延长和港口收费定价。其次，我们评估了引进后巴拿马型大型船舶的影响。在这种情况下，亚洲港口的层次性得到了更大的强调，香港和釜山占据了市场主导地位。最后，我们评估了西伯利亚陆桥作为替代航线的可能性。得出结论：在目前情况下，由于西伯利亚陆桥铁路运输价格高、铁路运输速度慢、沃什奇尼港集装箱货物吞吐能力严重不足，不可能用西伯利亚陆桥作为海上航线的替代路线。

This research aims to develop the equilibrium model of international container cargo transport market and evaluate the policy of port development/management. First, we develop the equilibrium model, which is consisted of two economic subjects, the carriers and shippers. In this model, it is assumed that the carriers aim to minimize their operation cost under the existence of shippers' Nash equilibrium. And the shippers are also assumed to behave myopically, so their aim is to minimize their generalized cost.Using the developed model, we estimate the future network of Asian-Pacific-European container cargo transport The shape of resultant network is hub-spoke network, which means large vessels and transshipment cargo are concentrated to a couple of big ports. Especially, the Hanshin, the Pusan and the Singapore port enjoy the role as the gateway ports for the intercontinental transport. Moreover, it is understood that the Hanshin and the Pusan have a tight rivalry, so this rivalry is emphasized by their own port management policies, say port capacity extension and port charge pricing. Second, we evaluate the impact of introduction of Post-Panamax class large vessels. Under this situation, the hierarchy of Asian ports is emphasized more strongly, so that the Hong Kong and the Pusan have the market dominance.Finally, we evaluate the possibility of use of the Siberian Land Bridge as the alternative route of sea route. We concluded that under the current situation, there is no way to use the Siberian Land Bridge as the alternative route of sea route because of its high pricing on the railway transport, slow speed of transport on railway and the serious shortness of capability of container cargo handling at Vostchny port.