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Network equilibrium analysis on international regular container cargo transport and policy evaluation of port development/management

国际定期集装箱货物运输网络均衡分析及港口发展/管理政策评估

基本信息

批准号：
10650527
负责人：
KURODA Katsuhiko
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
Kobe University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1998
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1998 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This research aims to develop the equilibrium model of international container cargo transport market and evaluate the policy of port development/management. First, we develop the equilibrium model, which is consisted of two economic subjects, the carriers and shippers. In this model, it is assumed that the carriers aim to minimize their operation cost under the existence of shippers' Nash equilibrium. And the shippers are also assumed to behave myopically, so their aim is to minimize their generalized cost.Using the developed model, we estimate the future network of Asian-Pacific-European container cargo transport The shape of resultant network is hub-spoke network, which means large vessels and transshipment cargo are concentrated to a couple of big ports. Especially, the Hanshin, the Pusan and the Singapore port enjoy the role as the gateway ports for the intercontinental transport. Moreover, it is understood that the Hanshin and the Pusan have a tight rivalry, so this rivalry is emphasized by their own port management policies, say port capacity extension and port charge pricing. Second, we evaluate the impact of introduction of Post-Panamax class large vessels. Under this situation, the hierarchy of Asian ports is emphasized more strongly, so that the Hong Kong and the Pusan have the market dominance.Finally, we evaluate the possibility of use of the Siberian Land Bridge as the alternative route of sea route. We concluded that under the current situation, there is no way to use the Siberian Land Bridge as the alternative route of sea route because of its high pricing on the railway transport, slow speed of transport on railway and the serious shortness of capability of container cargo handling at Vostchny port.

本研究旨在建立国际集装箱货物运输市场的均衡模型并评估港口开发/管理政策。首先，我们建立了均衡模型，该模型由承运人和托运人两个经济主体组成。在该模型中，假设承运人的目标是在托运人纳什均衡存在的情况下最小化其运营成本。并且托运人也被假设为目光短浅，因此他们的目标是最小化他们的广义成本。利用开发的模型，我们估计了亚太-欧洲集装箱货物运输的未来网络。由此产生的网络的形状是轴辐式网络，这意味着大型船舶和转运货物集中在几个大港口。尤其是阪神港、釜山港和新加坡港，享有洲际运输门户港的作用。此外，据了解，阪神和釜山之间存在着激烈的竞争，因此他们自己的港口管理政策（例如港口扩容和港口收费定价）强调了这种竞争。其次，我们评估引入超巴拿马级大型船舶的影响。在这种情况下，亚洲港口的等级制度被更加强调，从而香港和釜山占据了市场主导地位。最后，我们评估了利用西伯利亚大陆桥作为海上航线替代航线的可能性。我们的结论是，在目前形势下，西伯利亚陆桥的铁路运输价格高、铁路运输速度慢、东方港集装箱货物装卸能力严重不足，无法作为海上航线的替代路线。