A Study on Optimal management Scheme for Japanese Main Ports

本研究旨在为日本现有的主要港口寻找最佳的管理方案，以提高其在海上运输市场的竞争力。主要研究结果如下：（1）通过对集装箱货物流数据和国际贸易数据的分析，发现了亚洲集装箱货物流的特征。为了理解时间序列的特征，我们采用了向量自回归分析/VAR。对未来OD量的预测采用了计量经济学分析方法。对于托运人的行为，我们使用PIERS数据库，并校准Logit分配参数。(2)建立了海运市场的网络均衡模型。该网络模型分为两个层次，上层是全球承运人的寡头竞争，下层是托运人的航线选择行为，即Logit分配。我们将开发的模型应用到实际的亚太-欧洲集装箱运输市场。模型验证良好。(3)我们预测了2015年的OD货物流量，并了解亚洲港口之间的未来竞争。(4)我们讨论了日本主要港口的港口管理方案。本文以超级中心港计划为框架，测算其对亚洲港口的影响。研究结果表明，港口费折扣方案对跨洲市场转运货物的聚集具有较好的效果。至于港口竞争，据了解，日本港口与韩国和中国港口的竞争非常激烈。

This research aims to find the optimal management scheme for existing major ports in Japan for increasing their competitiveness in maritime transport market. The obtained outcomes are as follows :(1) We find the characteristics of Asia-based container cargo flow by investigating the container cargo flow data and international trading data. For understanding the characteristics in terms of time series, we adopt Vector Autoregressive Analysis/VAR. For forecasting the future OD volume, we adopt econometric analysis. As for the shipper's behavior, we use PIERS database and calibrate parameters for Logit allocation.(2) The network equilibrium model for maritime transport market is developed. This network model consists of two level ; in the upper level the global carriers' oligopolistic competition is expressed ; in the lower level the shippers route choice behavior which is expressed as Logit allocation is dealt with. We apply the developed model to the actual Asia-Pacific-Europe container transport markets. The model validation is good.(3) We forecast the 2015 OD cargo flow and understand the future rivalry among Asian ports.(4) We discuss the port management scheme for Japanese major ports. By adopting the frame work of Super Central Port Scheme, we measure its impact on Asian ports. The results show that the port charge discount scheme works well for gathering transshipment cargos for the trans-continental market. As for the port rivalry, it is understood that Japanese ports have very tight rivalry to Korean and Chinese ports.