An Industrial-Organization-Theoretic Study on the Future Efficient Dairy Plant Location in Japan : Minimum-Cost Network-Flow Analysis Approach

为每个9农业地区在日本,我们估计简单的马尔可夫链的转移矩阵(状态:经产牛大小的数量/上层阶级对应于大尺寸、初始概率:1998奶牛场的数量每个类)基于1996 - 98年奶牛场日本奶业委员会的基本调查,我们表明,搬到下层的趋势比搬到上层阶级的趋势在几乎所有类所有地区不包括北海道。对于每个地区，我们还计算了1998年至2008年期间的牛奶产量、奶牛场数量和每个类别奶牛场的数量份额。我们根据财务省贸易统计、管理协调厅家庭收支调查年度报告和日本乳业委员会的相关研究数据，明确了以下几点。(1)日本乳制品进口的近期情况及增长趋势；(2)乳制品的商品分类；(3)对日本乳制品市场进行更多的区域分类，以供我们研究；(3)对各区域内每种乳制品的近期需求情况及需求函数进行标注；(4)各区域市场间每种乳制品需求结构的差异。根据我们对关东地区集团9家原料奶生产指定机构和日本乳业委员会的访谈调查，以及相关的研究数据，我们明确了以下几点。(1)近期乳制品厂选址情况和原料奶运输路线；(2)原料奶生产企业组织在提高原料奶营销选址效率方面的现有努力；(3)关东区域集团提高现有原料奶营销选址效率的可能性和未来需要解决的问题。根据日本乳业委员会1995-96年全国原料奶同步营销调查及相关统计数据，我们明确了以下几点：(1)日本原料奶加工厂最近的选址情况；(2)原料奶加工厂生产的产品分类。我们还指定了关东区域集团(涵盖417个原料奶运输点（原产地）和101个原料奶加工厂（目的地）的原料奶最低成本网络流问题，并使用本研究中开发的个人计算机代码解决了这些问题，并显示了在我们试图提高原料奶营销的区位效率时需要考虑的要点。少

For each of 9 agricultural regions in Japan, we estimate transition matrix of simple Markov chain (state : size class of number of multiparous cows / upper class corresponds to large size, initial probability : 1998 number share of dairy farms of each class) based on 1996-98 Dairy Farm Basic Surveys of Japan Dairy Council, and we show that trend of moving to lower classes is stronger than trend of moving to upper classes in almost all class in all region excluding Hokkaido. For each region we also forcaste quantity of milk production, number of dairy farms, and number share of dairy farms of each class for the period from 1998 to 2008.We make the following points clear based on Trade Statistics of Ministry of Finance, Annual Report on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey of Management and Coordination Agency, and related research data of Japan Dairy Council. (1) Recent situation and increasing trend of dairy products import in Japan, (2) commodity classification of dairy products a … More nd regional classification of dairy products market in Japan for our study, (3) recent demand situation and demand function of each dairy product in each regional marked, (4) difference in demand structure of each dairy product among regional markets.We make the following points clear based on our Interview Survey of 9 Designated Organizations of raw milk producers in KANTO Regional Bloc and Japan Dairy Council, and related research data. (1) Recent locational situation of dairy plants and raw milk hauling routes, (2) existing efforts of raw milk producers' organizations to improve locational efficiency of raw milk marketing, (3) possibility and problems to be solved in the future to improve locational efficiency of existing raw milk marketing in KANTO Regional Bloc.We make the following points clear based on 1995-96 National Simultaneous Raw Milk Marketing Surveys of Japan Dairy Council and related statistical data. (1) Recent locational situation of raw milk processing plants in Japan, (2) classification of raw milk processing plants by products manufactured by the plants. We also specify raw milk minimum-cost-network-flow problems for KANTO Regional Bloc which covers 417 raw milk shipping points (origins) and 101 raw milk processing plants (destinations), solve these problems using personal computer code developed in this study, and show important points to be considered when we try to improve locational efficiency of raw milk marketing. Less