Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Trade Policy on International Market of Agricultural Products - Analysis with Spatial Equilibrium Model of International Trade -

这本日本报告书有158页，A4尺寸，收集了本项目的3篇论文(参考文献[3][4][6]in 11.RefERENCEs)。参考文献[1]总结了我们关于人民币汇率升值对世界粮食市场影响的研究结果。本研究运用了三种产品国际贸易的空间均衡分析方法。但这篇发表于2006年的参考文献并未包括在本报告中。本报告仅包括2007年或2008年发表的参考文献。参考文献[2]是我们研究自由贸易协定主要对世界农产品市场影响的结果。参考文献[5]仅为本报告书，参考文献[3][4][6]包含参考文献[3][4][6]。参考文献[3]和[4]总结了我们在粮食需求队列分析中识别问题的研究。这一研究对于建立考虑不同代际消费模式差异的新的需求函数具有重要意义。参考文献[6]总结了我们关于粮食贸易基本面变化对世界粮食市场影响的研究结果。本研究运用了三种产品国际贸易的空间均衡分析方法。粮食贸易基本面包括粮食(玉米)生物乙醇生产快速增长，粮食贸易海运和内陆营销成本快速大幅上升，中国、印度等发展中大国经济快速增长后粮食需求结构迅速变化，以及全球变暖导致的异常天气和粮食减产。

This Japanese report book has 158 pages of A4 size and collects 3 papers of this project (References [3] [4] [6] in 11.REFERENCES). Also this report includes other information for our presentation at conference ([7]).Reference [1] summarizes the result of our research about appreciation effects of Chinese YUAN exchange rate on world grain markets. Spatial equilibrium analysis of three products international trade is applied in this research. But this reference published in 2006 is not included in this report. We include in this report only references published in 2007 or 2008.Reference [2] is the result of our study concerning the effects of FTA mainly on world agricultural products markets. But this reference is not included in this report because of the same reason as reference [1].Reference [5] is just this report book and includes references [3] [4] [6] in it.References [3] and [4] summarize our study on the identification problem in cohort analysis of food demand. This study is important to develop a new demand function that takes the differences of consumption pattern among different generations into consideration.Reference [6] summarizes the result of our research about effects of the change in grain trade fundamentals on world grain markets. Spatial equilibrium analysis of three products international trade is applied in this research. Grain trade fundamentals mean a rapid increase in bio-ethanol production with grain (corn), a rapid and large increase in ocean freight and inland marketing cost for grain trade, a rapid change of the structure of grain demand following a rapid economic growth in large developing countries such as China and India, and occurrence of abnormal weather resulting from the earth warming and a following decrease in grain yields.