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Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Trade Policy on International Market of Agricultural Products - Analysis with Spatial Equilibrium Model of International Trade -

贸易政策对农产品国际市场影响的模拟分析-国际贸易空间均衡模型分析-

基本信息

批准号：
18580235
负责人：
KAWAGUCHI Tsunemasa
金额：
$ 1.26万
依托单位：
Kyushu Sangyo University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2006 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This Japanese report book has 158 pages of A4 size and collects 3 papers of this project (References [3] [4] [6] in 11.REFERENCES). Also this report includes other information for our presentation at conference ([7]).Reference [1] summarizes the result of our research about appreciation effects of Chinese YUAN exchange rate on world grain markets. Spatial equilibrium analysis of three products international trade is applied in this research. But this reference published in 2006 is not included in this report. We include in this report only references published in 2007 or 2008.Reference [2] is the result of our study concerning the effects of FTA mainly on world agricultural products markets. But this reference is not included in this report because of the same reason as reference [1].Reference [5] is just this report book and includes references [3] [4] [6] in it.References [3] and [4] summarize our study on the identification problem in cohort analysis of food demand. This study is important to develop a new demand function that takes the differences of consumption pattern among different generations into consideration.Reference [6] summarizes the result of our research about effects of the change in grain trade fundamentals on world grain markets. Spatial equilibrium analysis of three products international trade is applied in this research. Grain trade fundamentals mean a rapid increase in bio-ethanol production with grain (corn), a rapid and large increase in ocean freight and inland marketing cost for grain trade, a rapid change of the structure of grain demand following a rapid economic growth in large developing countries such as China and India, and occurrence of abnormal weather resulting from the earth warming and a following decrease in grain yields.

本日文报告书共158页，A4大小，收集了本项目的3篇论文（参考文献11.参考文献[3] [4] [6]）。参考文献[1]总结了我们关于人民币汇率升值对世界粮食市场影响的研究结果。本研究运用了三种产品国际贸易的空间均衡分析方法。但2006年发表的这篇参考文献并未包含在本报告中。本报告仅收录2007年或2008年发表的文献。文献[2]是我们研究FTA主要对世界农产品市场影响的结果。但由于与文献[1]相同的原因，该文献未被纳入本报告，文献[5]只是本报告书，其中包括文献[3] [4] [6]，文献[3]和[4]总结了我们对食物需求队列分析中识别问题的研究。本文的研究对于建立一个新的需求函数具有重要意义，该函数考虑了不同世代之间消费模式的差异。参考文献[6]总结了我们关于粮食贸易基本面变化对世界粮食市场影响的研究结果。本研究运用了三种产品国际贸易的空间均衡分析方法。粮食贸易基本面是指利用粮食（玉米）生产生物乙醇的迅速增加，粮食贸易的海运和内陆销售成本迅速大幅增加，随着中国和印度等发展中大国经济的快速增长，粮食需求结构迅速变化，以及由于地球变暖导致的异常天气的出现和随之而来的粮食产量下降。