Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Trade Policy on International Market of Agricultural Products - Analysis with Spatial Equilibrium Model of International Trade -

本日文报告册共158页，A4大小，收录了该项目的3篇论文（参考文献11.参考文献[3][4][6]）。此外，这份报告还包括我们在会议上展示的其他信息（b[7]）。参考文献[1]总结了我们关于人民币汇率升值对世界粮食市场影响的研究结果。本文采用三种产品国际贸易的空间均衡分析。但这篇2006年发表的参考文献并没有包括在本报告中。我们在本报告中只包括2007年或2008年出版的参考文献。参考文献[2]是我们对FTA主要对世界农产品市场影响的研究结果。但是由于和参考[1]相同的原因，这个参考没有包含在这份报告中。参考资料[5]就是本报告，其中包括参考资料[3][4][6]。参考文献[3]和[4]总结了我们对食品需求队列分析中识别问题的研究。本研究对于建立考虑代际消费模式差异的新需求函数具有重要意义。参考文献[6]总结了我们关于粮食贸易基本面的变化对世界粮食市场影响的研究结果。本文采用三种产品国际贸易的空间均衡分析。粮食贸易基本面是指以粮食（玉米）为原料的生物乙醇生产迅速增加，粮食贸易的海运和内陆营销成本迅速大幅增加，中国和印度等大型发展中国家经济快速增长导致的粮食需求结构迅速变化，以及地球变暖导致的异常天气的发生和随之而来的粮食产量下降。

This Japanese report book has 158 pages of A4 size and collects 3 papers of this project (References [3] [4] [6] in 11.REFERENCES). Also this report includes other information for our presentation at conference ([7]).Reference [1] summarizes the result of our research about appreciation effects of Chinese YUAN exchange rate on world grain markets. Spatial equilibrium analysis of three products international trade is applied in this research. But this reference published in 2006 is not included in this report. We include in this report only references published in 2007 or 2008.Reference [2] is the result of our study concerning the effects of FTA mainly on world agricultural products markets. But this reference is not included in this report because of the same reason as reference [1].Reference [5] is just this report book and includes references [3] [4] [6] in it.References [3] and [4] summarize our study on the identification problem in cohort analysis of food demand. This study is important to develop a new demand function that takes the differences of consumption pattern among different generations into consideration.Reference [6] summarizes the result of our research about effects of the change in grain trade fundamentals on world grain markets. Spatial equilibrium analysis of three products international trade is applied in this research. Grain trade fundamentals mean a rapid increase in bio-ethanol production with grain (corn), a rapid and large increase in ocean freight and inland marketing cost for grain trade, a rapid change of the structure of grain demand following a rapid economic growth in large developing countries such as China and India, and occurrence of abnormal weather resulting from the earth warming and a following decrease in grain yields.