Generalization of Traditional Spatial Equilibrium Model of International Trade to Macro Simulation Analysis Model of Trade Policy

传统的分析FTA等对国民经济总体影响的AGE模型，如GTAP模型，大多基于阿明顿假设，不能正确考虑退出和新进入国际贸易，也不能正确考虑实际关税配额制度下的从价或特定关税和运输成本。本研究表明，通过对传统国际贸易空间均衡模型的推广，我们可以构建一个短期的AGE模型，该模型可以在不依赖阿明顿假设的情况下，正确考虑国际贸易退出和新进入以及现实贸易体系下的各种关税和运输成本。本研究还为短期AGE模型提供了计算机程序。

Most of the conventional AGE models to analyze the general impact of FTA and so on national economy, as in GTAP model, are based on Armington Assumption and so can not give correct considerations to withdrawal from and new entry to international trade and also to ad valorem or specific duties and transportation costs under real tariff quota system. This study made it clear that we can frame a short-term AGE model, which can give correct considerations to withdrawal from and new entry to international trade and also to various duties and transportation costs under real trade system, without relying on Armington Assumption, by generalizing traditional spatial equilibrium model of international trade. Also this study provided computer programs for the short-term AGE model.