COUNTERMEASURES OF EVACUATION AND MITIGATION FOR NEXT NANKAI-EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI IN SHIKOKU ISLAND

南海海槽沿着每隔100-150年发生一次地震。四国岛沿岸地区在这些地震中遭受了巨大的海啸破坏，本研究的目的是探讨下一次南海地震海啸在四国岛的疏散和减灾对策。特别是发展了海啸数值模拟中考虑居民疏散活动的死亡人数预测方法区在这项研究中。1707年会安大地震、1854年安西南海大地震和1946年昭和南海大地震的海啸都对这座城市造成了严重破坏。选取1854年8. 4级地震为研究对象，首先得到了海啸到达时间、海啸高度和漫顶高度的空间分布。然后对那里的海啸风险进行了评估。其次，通过数值模拟得到了不同疏散开始时间下所选城镇的死亡人数。强调了迅速疏散活动的重要性，以减少死亡人数。

A number of earthquakes have occurred at intervals of 100-150 years along the Nankai Trough. The coastal area of Shikoku Island has sustained great tsunami damage caused by these earthquakes.The purpose of this study is to examine the countermeasures of evacuation and the mitigation for the next Nankai-earthquake tsunami in the Shikoku Island, especially to develop the prediction method of the death toll incorporating the evacuation activities of inhabitants for the tsunami numerical simulation.Usa town of Kochi Prefectures is chosen as the objective area in this study. This twon has suffered heavy damage by the tsunamis of the 1707 Hoei-earthquake, the 1854 Ansei Nankai-earthquake and the 1946 Showa Nankai-earthquake. The 1854 Earthquake (M8.4) is selected for this study.In condusion, first, the spatial distribution of the tsunami arrival time, tsunami height and the overtopping height defined as the difference between the wave crest and the levee height above the mean sea level at each coastal village were obtained. And then the tsunami risk were evaluated there. Second, the death toll in the chosen town was obtained for the various starting time of evacuation from the numerical simulation. The importance of speedy evacuation activities is emphasized in order to reduce the death toll.