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An Theoretical and Empirical Research on Economic and International Impact of the Euro

欧元经济和国际影响的理论与实证研究

基本信息

批准号：
11630097
负责人：
FUJITA Seiichi
金额：
$ 1.73万
依托单位：
Kobe University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1999
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1999 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Fujita made researches on the international impact of the introduction of the Euro.(1) The Euro can't become a dominant international currency as the DM at the first stage, because roles of the DM as an international currency was based mainly on the diversity of currencies in the trade or capital transactions within the EMS countries and such diversity disappear when the Euro is introduced.(2) At the second stage the Euro will be used as an international currency mostly in the EU accession countries and some African countries, through such roles as denomination currency, standard currency, intervention currency, reserve currency.(3) The bipolar system of Dollar Area and Euro Area has two different impacts on the international monetary system. The first possibility is the instability of Dollar-Euro exchange rate through huge amount of portfolio shift among the Dollar and the Euro. The second possibility is the stability of the international monetary system through the regulation on the US current account deficits.Takahama made researches on the impact of the Euro on Euro zone economies through re-examinations of Optimum Currency Area.(1) The main economic effect of the monetary union is the control of inflation in the case of higher-inflation countries, but for low-inflation countries such as Germany economic effects of the monetary union may be small. Convergentョ of rate of inflation is not the condition but the outcome of the monetary union.(2) After the introduction of the Euro, the economic loss of individual countries depend on the divergence of industrial structure of the particular countries. If the trade integration within the Euro zone promotes the divergence of industries among participating countries, the economic loss will increase.

藤田研究了欧元引入的国际影响。(1)在第一阶段，欧元不可能像德国马克那样成为一种占主导地位的国际货币，因为德国马克作为一种国际货币的作用主要是基于EMS国家内部贸易或资本交易中货币的多样性，而这种多样性在欧元引入后消失了。(2)在第二阶段，欧元将主要在欧盟加入国和一些非洲国家作为国际货币使用，发挥计价货币、标准货币、干预货币、储备货币等作用。(3)美元区和欧元区的两极体系对国际货币体系产生了两种不同的影响。第一种可能性是通过大量的美元和欧元之间的投资组合转移，导致美元对欧元汇率的不稳定。第二种可能性是通过对美国经常项目赤字的监管来稳定国际货币体系。高滨通过重新审视最佳货币区来研究欧元对欧元区经济的影响。(1)货币联盟的主要经济效应是在高通胀国家控制通胀，但对于低通胀国家，如德国，货币联盟的经济效应可能很小。通货膨胀率趋同不是货币联盟的条件，而是货币联盟的结果。(2)欧元引入后，各国的经济损失取决于各国产业结构的差异。如果欧元区内部的贸易一体化促进了参与国之间的产业分化，则经济损失将增加。