Researh of EU Enlargement and its Impacts on Euro-Area and New-member countries and on the roles of the curo

以下是研究结果。货币危机的可能性与92-93年的EMS危机相比，货币危机的可能性相对较低，因为新成员国被迫满足《马斯特里赫特条约》的所有趋同标准，而且ERM-II在确定范围方面具有灵活性。巴拉萨-尽管萨缪尔森效应在新成员国中非常强大，但这些制度框架可以将它们从货币危机中拯救出来。欧盟东扩及其对实体经济的影响欧盟东扩产生了大量FDI从原成员国流向新成员国的强烈效应，并同步了欧盟成员国的商业周期。(最优货币区的内生性)。欧元的国际作用自从引入欧元以来，欧元在全球公共和私人使用领域的国际作用得到了发展。但欧元有一个悖论，即欧元区国家越多，欧元的国际作用就越少。在考虑欧元未来的作用时，最重要的观点是亚洲国家的汇率制度。会议和出版物我们组织了包括欧元区和新成员国学者在内的研究成员，并在日本举办了多次会议和研讨会。我们正在准备一本名为《28岁的欧洲：欧元区的扩大及其对实体经济的影响》的书。

Following is the research findings.1. Possibility of currency crisisThe possibility of currency crises is relatively low compared with EMS crisis in 92-93, because the new-member countries are forced to satisfy all convergence criteria of Maastricht Treaty, and also the ERM-II is flexible in the determination of the band. Balassa- While Samuelson effect is very strong in new-member countries, these institutional framework can save them from currency crisis.2. EU enlargement and its impacts on real economyEU enlargement has had the strong effects of large volume of FDI from original members to new members and had synchronized the business cycle of EU members. (endogeneity of optimum currency area).3. The international roles of the euroThe international roles of the euro has been developed since introduction of the euro in the fields of both public and private use in global dimension. But the euro has a paradox that the more the number of countries in Euro Area, the less is the international roles of the euro. In considering the future roles of the euro the most important point of view is foreign exchange rate systems of Asian countries.4. The conference and publicationWe have organized a research member including scholars in Euro Area and new member countries and had held many conferences and seminars in Japan. We are preparing the Book titled Europe at 28: the Enlargement of the Eurozone and its impacts on real economy.