The Water Shortage in Yellow River Basin: the mechanism and the mitigation by Water Market, the Welfare Improvement Impact

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This study aims to expand the previous information about water shortage (Kameyama 1998) in Yellow River Basin in China.1) The situation and main cause of water shortage in Yellow River Basin are investigated by detail study based on various references and the field survey. For the canal, the quit low lining ratio, damaged due to freezing, serious water loss due to leakage and during water transfer. For the structure, outdated or damaged, poor regulation capacity in gravity irrigation areas with low irrigation guarantee rate; outdated ＆ serious damaged electric facilities are pointed out.2) As the countermeasures for the water shortage, the significant change has been required from the water resource development to the water demand management, especially, water saving development and the diffusion are critical. Regarding water saving technology, canal lining and tow pressure transfer, and sprinkler irrigation are comparatively discussed.3) Water pricing is discussed based on legal and economical aspect. Furthermore in the case of increasing water price and the changing the assignment for each irrigation blocks, the evaluation modeling method the impact of these change is presented based on positive mathematical programming.4) With the change of the resource allocation, the agricultural structure change affects the Input-Output structure, furthermore, the influence to the neighborhood countries' economy. The impact assessment framework is presented by CGE(computable general equilibrium) modeling method to simulate the welfare change.