Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production Structure in Arid Areas

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This research is the supplemental one of ICCAP in RIHN. ICCAP : Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Production in Arid Region. We investigate the impact of Climate Change in the following issues.(1)Agricultural Sector Model (Kameyama)Using ASM developed by co-researcher in Turkey, we explored the framework to investigate the impact The calibration model was set up with maximizing economic welfare as objective function and resource constraints for four regions. It is the space equilibrium of demand & supply of food, consisted of crops, livestock. In simulation part, the results of quasi-experiment in ICCAP in Kyoto was basically attempted to use the impacts are the yield change for major crops.(2)Bio-physical models (Ozan Eruygur)One of the crop growth models is applied in Konnya. CropSyst is a multi-year, daily time step crop growth simulation model. Its object is to provide an analytical tool to study the effect of cropping systems management on crop productivity and the environment. CropSyst simulates the soil water budget, soil-plant nitrogen budget, crop phenology, crop canopy and the root growth, biomass production, crop yield, residue production and decomposition, soil erosion by water, and pesticide fate. As one of the output, the yield changes of major crops are available.(3)Interrelations among rural industries structure by Input-Output Table Analysis (Kagatsume)Original Input-Output tables in 1985, 1990 and 1996 are used. By aggregating non-rural sectors, the table aggregated to 24 industry sector, 6 final demand sectors and 4 value added sectors. As some implications in recent Japanese article, it gives prediction in 2030 based on the long term forecast status by Metrological group in ICCAP.