Mechanistic atmospheric dispersal simulations in crop epidemiology to estimate risks for staple crop production from wind-borne transmission of crop diseases and insect pests

农作物流行病学中的机械大气扩散模拟，以评估农作物病虫害经风传播对主要农作物生产的风险

• 批准号: 529743941
• 负责人: Dr. Marcel Meyer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: UN Resident Coordinator Office
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: WBP Position
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/529743941?language=en
• 关键词: Mechanistic; atmospheric; dispersal; simulations; crop

The global burden of crop diseases and insect pests on major food crops is estimated at 17-30% (Savary et al., 2019). Several of the most devastating crop diseases and insect pests can be transported by winds over extremely long distances; they cross regions, countries and even entire continents (e.g., Aylor, 2017). These low-probability but high-impact events can have severe consequences for agricultural production by causing epidemic outbreaks or insect pest infestations in previously uninfected areas. Whilst recent advances in meteorological modelling, remote sensing, and computational techniques allow for obtaining first quantitative estimates of wind-borne transmission risks that have recently been integrated into advanced real-time disease forecasting systems (e.g., Meyer et al, 2017a,b; Meyer, 2018; Visser et al., 2018; Allen-Sader et al., 2019), various open questions, challenges and uncertainties remain to be addressed for improving our understanding and capacity to predict risks for agricultural production posed by wind-borne transmission of crop diseases and insect pests. Key open questions evolve around the effect of complex interactions between meteorological drivers (e.g., wind, temperature) and biology of pathogens and insect pests (e.g., survival times, flight direction) on characteristic spatial and temporal dispersal scales, and around the integration of realistic atmospheric dispersal modelling components into epidemiological and crop modelling frameworks. The research proposed here addressed two key objectives: (i) review the literature and consult experts to obtain a parameterization of existing operational atmospheric transport models for a set of key wind-borne crop diseases and insect pests; (ii) continue previous work of the author (unpublished) on development and testing of a novel GPU-based simulation tool that allows for integrating realistic dispersal modelling into epidemiological and crop models for studying complex interactions between meteorological and biological factors. The results of the research proposed here – a parameterization of existing operational atmospheric dispersal models for key crop diseases and insect pests and a novel simulation tool for flexible exploratory numerical studies of wind-borne transmission of crop pathogens and insect pests – together with previous work of the author provides a toolbox and research profile that fills a gap in the German research landscape. The embedding of the Walter-Benjamin Project in the Crop Sciences Group at the University of Bonn with close affiliation to the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) provides an excellent network, which, under the guidance of the scientific mentor, will enable valuable contributions to existing research efforts along with the design of follow-up projects. For me, the WBP will provide an extremely valuable stepping stone into the German research landscape on crop modelling.

全球主要粮食作物的病虫害负担估计为17-30% （Savary et al., 2019）。一些最具破坏性的作物病虫害可以通过风传播到极远的地方；它们跨越地区、国家甚至整个大陆（例如，Aylor, 2017）。这些低概率但高影响的事件可能在以前未受感染的地区造成流行病暴发或虫害，从而对农业生产造成严重后果。虽然气象建模、遥感和计算技术的最新进展允许对风传播风险进行首次定量估计，这些风险最近已被整合到先进的实时疾病预测系统中(例如，Meyer等人，2017a,b; Meyer, 2018； Visser等人，2018；Allen-Sader等人，2019)，各种悬而未决的问题、挑战和不确定性仍有待解决，以提高我们对作物病虫害风媒传播给农业生产带来的风险的理解和预测能力。关键的开放性问题围绕着气象驱动因素（如风、温度）和病虫害生物学（如生存时间、飞行方向）之间复杂的相互作用对特征时空扩散尺度的影响，以及围绕着将现实的大气扩散建模组件整合到流行病学和作物建模框架中。这里提出的研究涉及两个关键目标：(i)审查文献并咨询专家，以获得一组主要风传作物病虫害的现有业务大气运输模式的参数化；（ii）继续作者之前的工作（未发表），开发和测试一种基于gpu的新型模拟工具，该工具可以将现实的扩散模型整合到流行病学和作物模型中，以研究气象和生物因素之间的复杂相互作用。本文提出的研究结果——对主要作物病虫害的现有可操作大气传播模型进行参数化，以及对作物病虫害风传传播进行灵活探索性数值研究的新型模拟工具——与作者之前的工作一起，提供了一个工具箱和研究简介，填补了德国研究领域的空白。与莱布尼茨农业景观研究中心（ZALF）有密切联系的波恩大学作物科学小组的Walter-Benjamin项目提供了一个极好的网络，在科学导师的指导下，将对现有的研究工作以及后续项目的设计作出宝贵的贡献。对我来说，WBP将为进入德国作物建模研究领域提供极有价值的垫脚石。