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Construction of simulation model for estimating the human activity on the consumption of energy, biomas, and water resources

构建估算人类活动对能源、生物质和水资源消耗的模拟模型

基本信息

批准号：
11680536
负责人：
SUGIMOTO Shintaro
金额：
$ 1.79万
依托单位：
RISSHO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1999
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1999 至 2000
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11680536/
关键词：
Global Environmental Problem Remote Sensing Geographic Information System Energy Problem Water Resources Human Activity

项目摘要

A research concerning the earth's environment and its various problems such as global warming, acid rain, the deforestation tropical rainforest and desertification is performed. These environmental problems are mutually related to each other. For instance, forests are deforested to obtain lands for cultivation to maintain an adequate supply of food. Hence, the CO2 density in the atmosphere increases by decreasing the CO2 fixation area, which in turn contributes to global warming. The influence by human activities such as food consumption, energy consumption, and water demand are greatly contribute to many of these problems. To provide insight into relative importance of different linkages in the Society-biosphere-climate. IMAGE2^<[1]> was developed. But this can't explain the relationship between human activities and global environmental change.Goto ^<[2]> estimated the population that can be accommodated with the potential arable land (using NDVI from NOAA-AVHRR) which can be potentia … More lly cultivated is used for grain production. considering the amount of meat production. And he estimated the CO2 emission from the human activities When the population is maximum of the capacity by using Edmond-Raily Model explicitly. Yamamoto^<[3]> evaluated the overall CO2 exhaust due to the improvement of land use, population increase, living standard improvement, forest destruction and so forth and obtained the amount for which the biomes can be used. In this model, the CO2 exhaust due to two energy sectors were evaluated : energy consumption sector and the sector in which the area of forests is decreased due to logging and due to slash-and-burn agriculture to clear away plots of land for farming. But the population is iuputted. Past Researches mentioned above can not explain the balance between human activities and LUC.This study aims to make a model by which the influence of human activities such as food consumption, energy consumption, etc. on the earth's environment is evaluated and to evaluate the size of the influence from 1986 to 2020 for each countries.Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change is analyzed from the viewpoint of food productivity, CO2 emission, and water balance. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, global population capacity, and water balance are analyzed using system dynamics model. In the model the world is divided into each countries. The global land use data set used in this study is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Cramer and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. As for the water balance, water is used for cultivation, lifeline, and faculty. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and IPCC scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, based on the human habitability in 2020, which is estimated by UN as 8 billion people, CO2 emission, water balance are estimated respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.Reference :[1]J.Alcomo (ed.) : IMAGE2 2.0 Integrated Modeling of Global Cli.mate Change, Kluer Academic Publishers, 1994.[2]S.Goto : Assimilating use of GIS for Socio-Economical Simulation for Global Change, Toward Global Planning of Sustainable Use of the Earth-Development of Global Eco-Engineering- (Ed.S.Murai), Elsevier, pp387-393, 1995.[3]H.Yamamoto and K.Yamaji : Analysis of Availability of Biomass Use by Global Energy-LUC model, CEPRI Report y94004, 1994. Less

进行了一项关于地球环境及其各种问题的研究，如全球变暖、酸雨、森林砍伐、热带雨林和荒漠化。这些环境问题是相互关联的。例如，砍伐森林是为了获得耕种的土地，以维持充足的食物供应。因此，大气中的二氧化碳密度随着二氧化碳固定面积的减少而增加，这反过来又会导致全球变暖。人类活动的影响，如食物消耗、能源消耗和水需求，在很大程度上促成了许多这些问题。以深入了解社会-生物圈-气候中不同联系的相对重要性。开发了IMAGE2^&lt；[1]&gt；。但这不能解释人类活动与全球环境变化之间的关系。Goto^&lt；[2]&gt；估计了潜在耕地(利用NOAAAVHRR的NDVI值)可以容纳的人口，这可能是潜在的…种植的伊利更多地用于粮食生产。考虑到肉类产量。并利用Edmond-Raly模型对人口达到最大容量时人类活动产生的二氧化碳排放量进行了估算。Yamamoto^&lt；[3]&gt；评估了由于土地利用的改善、人口的增加、生活水平的提高、森林的破坏等所造成的二氧化碳排放总量，并得出了生物群落可利用的量。在该模型中，评估了两个能源部门造成的二氧化碳排放：能源消耗部门和由于砍伐和焚烧农业而减少森林面积的部门，以清理土地用于耕种。但人口数量减少了。以往的研究不能很好地解释人类活动与土地利用变化之间的平衡。本研究的目的是建立一个模型来评价人类活动对地球环境的影响，并评估1986-2020年人类活动对世界各国的影响大小。利用地理信息系统和社会经济数据，从食物生产率、二氧化碳排放和水平衡的角度分析了人类活动与全球环境变化的关系。在人口问题、粮食问题和能源消耗导致的全球变暖可以通过土地利用管理得到稳定的假设下，利用系统动力学模型分析了人类活动对全球环境变化、全球人口容量和水资源平衡的影响。在该模型中，世界被划分为每个国家。研究中使用的全球土地利用数据集是由卫星数据生成的土地覆盖图，并利用Cramer和所罗门方法估计耕地潜在分布，该方法考虑了降水量和蒸散量等气候数据的空间分布。此外，通过全球变暖，人类活动排放的二氧化碳对粮食生产的影响也被包括在模型中作为反馈。至于水的平衡，水是用来耕种的，是用来生命线的，用来培养人才的。对BAU情景和IPCC情景的分析结果与现有模型的结果相似。根据这项研究的结果，根据联合国估计的2020年人类可居住性为80亿人，分别估计了二氧化碳排放量和水资源平衡。参考文献：[1]J.Alcomo(编辑)：IMAGE2 2.0全球气候变化集成建模，Kluer学术出版社，1994.[2]S.Goto：吸收使用地理信息系统进行全球变化的社会经济模拟，走向全球可持续利用的全球规划--全球生态工程的发展-(编辑S.Murai)，Elsevier，pp387-393，[3]H.Yamamoto和K.Yamaji：用全球能源-LUC模型分析生物质利用的可用性，CEPRI报告y94004,1994。较少