A Study on the Integrated Simulation System of Land Use, Transportation, and Environment Policies in Asian Metropolises

我们在JSPS-马尼拉项目的支持下进行的研究试图捕捉经济增长、城市化和机动化之间的多重因果关系，并开发一套完整的环境模拟和政策影响分析系统。基于地理信息系统的分析表明，郊区的蔓延包络是由于高度的汽车依赖导致的较低的空间集聚效应和较高的道路运输服务敏感度造成的。相反，快速机动化是由无计划建设面积的扩大和中等收入阶层的增长显著推动的。因此，大多数郊区的汽车保有量较大，交通拥堵，基础设施服务质量较差。本研究还说明了环境模拟的一些后果。在BAU情景下，从微观层面对土地利用变化、绿地退化和大气环境进行了预测。建议为缓解这些情况，应紧急采取和实施包括紧凑型城市的土地使用交通政策和绿化政策在内的战略情景。显然，无论是从短期还是从长期来看，都有必要考虑许多可供选择的方案。本文开发的模拟系统适用于有效地检验一套可行的政策方案。

Our study under the auspices of JSPS-Manila project has tried to capture multi-fold causalities among economic growth, urbanization and motorization, and to develop an integrated system of environmental simulation and policy impact analysis. GIS-based analysis shows that sprawl envelopment in the suburban areas is caused by lower effect of spatial agglomeration and higher sensitivity to road-transport service resulting from high car dependence. It is conversely shown that rapid motorization is significantly pushed by expansion of sprawl built-up area as well as growth of the middle-income class. Consequently, most of suburbs show larger car ownership, traffic congestion and poor quality of infrastructure service.This study also illustrated some consequences of environmental simulation. Land-use change, degradation of greenery and atmospheric environment were predicted in the microscopic level under the BAU scenario. It is recommended that for the alleviation of these situation, strategic scenarios including land-use transportation policies towards a compact city and greening policies should be pursued and implemented urgently. There are clearly many available options that are necessary to consider both in short term and in long term. The simulation system developed here is applicable to effectively examine a feasible set of policy options.