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New Methods for Accident Analysis Using Geographic Information System

利用地理信息系统进行事故分析的新方法

基本信息

批准号：
04452237
负责人：
DOI Kenji
金额：
$ 4.03万
依托单位：
Tokyo Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1992
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1992 至 1993
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-04452237/
关键词：
Accident Analysis Geographic Information System Data Base of Traffic Accident Analysis of Hazord Level Recoginized by Regident Poisson regression model Generalized Least Squares Estimation 地理情報システムポアソン回帰

项目摘要

In this paper, there are four parts. Firstly, considering the current circumstance in Japan, there is a need to investi-gate through the microscopic view. In this study, several factors, such as hierarchy of the road, illegal parking along the road and obstructions which make shorter the sight distance, are determined by the microscopic investigation of the places where the accidents occurred.Secondly, the GIS, integrated with traffic accident, road structure and land use data, is built for traffic accident analysis. In the process of buliding the system, databases for three types of road (all roads, trunk roads and local roads) are created for the analysis, and using these, many factors causing accidents are found out effectively.Thirdly, statistical models are also made to identify the factors of accident. The regression model is often used in traffic accident analysis, but, this method is based on large samples. In this study, Poisson regression model is built because it considers rare phenomena of accidents. Compared to the regression model, this model has better results.Finally, in the analysis of accidents based on survey data, it is interesting to note that in areas perceived by people as dangerous, the actual accident occurrence is less than the estimated occurrence. Therefore, new models are developed to take into account these psychological factors.

本文共分四个部分。首先，考虑到日本目前的情况，有必要从微观角度进行研究。本文通过对事故发生地的微观调查，确定了道路的层次性、道路沿着违章停车、阻碍视线距离的障碍物等因素。其次，建立了交通事故地理信息系统，将交通事故、道路结构和土地利用数据集成在一起，进行交通事故分析。在系统的建立过程中，建立了三种类型道路（所有道路、干线道路和地方道路）的数据库进行分析，并利用这些数据库有效地找出了许多导致事故的因素。回归模型是交通事故分析中常用的一种方法，但这种方法需要大样本。在本研究中，泊松回归模型，因为它考虑到罕见的事故现象。最后，在基于调查数据的事故分析中，值得注意的是，在人们认为危险的地区，实际发生的事故要少于估计发生的事故。因此，开发新的模型来考虑这些心理因素。