The Economic Growth Policy and International Stability with Short-run Migration

首先，在假设世界上只有两个国家的假设下，建立了一个简单的动态的国际宏观经济模型。在国际上，不存在资本流动，但劳动力流动只来自发展中国家。这些模型的基本分析采用了经济增长理论的框架，在最简单的情况下，国际劳动力的流动是通过两国之间的工资率差距来发生的，最有可能的情况是，作为一对夫妇的人均劳动资本和工资率的经济状态将不会出现动态均衡。在这种情况下，人均劳动资本将是不稳定的，制度参数对动态过程的影响更大。经济增长不稳定对发展中国家有利，对发达国家不利。基于这些参数的经济政策仍有可能使增长过程保持稳定。接下来，通过重新构建更具体的关于生产技术和人口动态的模型，不仅考虑到工资的国际差距，而且考虑到国家之间的就业机会。在这种情况下，发达国家的人均劳动资本和访工率的经济状态很可能存在动态不稳定或不动态均衡。即使考虑到日本经济的主要趋势，这些结果也没有改变。因此，用合适的数据进行动态的图形和数值动态分析将几乎没有用处。国际经济增长将在动态上几乎不稳定，而制度参数可以软化每个动态模型的动态不稳定。

Firstly, a simple model of dynamic and international macro-economy is constructed on the supposition that only two countries exist in the world. And it is supposed that there is no capital mobility but labor mobility come only from the developing country internationally. Basic analyses of such models use the framework of economic growth theory.In the simplest case that international labor mobility takes place by the gap of wage rate between the two countries, it is the most possible case that the economic state as a couple of capital per labor and wage rate will have no dynamic equilibrium. In this case capital per labor will be instable and institutional parameters have larger effects upon the dynamic processes. The instable economic growth is advantageous to the developing country but disadvantageous to the advanced country. The economic policy on those parameters still has a little possibility to make the growth processes to be stable.Next, by reformulating the model more specifically about production techniques and population dynamics, international gaps of not only wages but also employment opportunities between the countries are taken into account. In such a case, the economic state of capital per labor and visited workers rate in the advanced country will have much possibly dynamic instability or no dynamic equilibrium. These results are not changed even taking account of the main tendencies of Japanese economy. So, the dynamic graphical and numerical dynamic analyses with suitable data will have little or no usefulness.The international growth will almost instable dynamically, and institutional parameters can soften the dynamic instabilities of each dynamic model.