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Studies on the transmission model for vivax malaria and its simulations

间日疟传播模型及其模拟研究

基本信息

批准号：
13640116
负责人：
ISHIKAWA Hirofumi
金额：
$ 1.66万
依托单位：
OKAYAMA UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13640116/
关键词：
Plasmodium vivax Malaria Transmission The Solomon Islands Model Simulation Relapse

项目摘要

We have proposed a mathematical model describing the transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria quantitatively, which is adjusted to the infected region, Guadalcanal, in the Solomon Islands. The simulation of a transmission model will be instrumental in planning the malaria control strategy. A characteristic of the life cycle of P. vivax parasites is that a sporozoite injected into the blood stream by a mosquito bite may sometimes stay in a hepatocyte as a hypnozoite. Therefore we have incorporated a phenomenon of renewed infections caused by a relapse into the transmission model. Also through the simulations we have attempted to evaluate the decline in prevalence caused by the programs of selective mass drug administration (MDA) and vector control such as the distribution of permethrin-treated bednets. The simulations have indicated that the concentrated repetition of MDA at one week intervals would reduce the prevalence of vivax malaria swiftly in the beginning and would keep the parasite rate below 1% for a few years but the prevalence would increase thereafter. In contrast the parasite rate would remain below 1% for a long time if a trial of one or two times MDA is accompanied with some reduction of the vectorial capacity by the enforcement of vector control. In any case, it is important to beware of relapse cases because even after the execution of MDA it takes a long time to decrease the proportion of hypnozoite carriers.

我们提出了一个数学模型，描述了间日疟原虫疟疾的传播定量，这是调整到受感染的地区，瓜达尔卡纳尔岛，在所罗门群岛。传播模式的模拟将有助于规划疟疾控制战略。间日疟原虫的生命周期的一个特征是，被蚊子叮咬注入血流的子孢子有时可能作为催眠子停留在肝细胞中。因此，我们在传播模型中纳入了复发导致的再次感染现象。此外，通过模拟，我们试图评估流行率下降所造成的选择性大规模药物管理（MDA）和病媒控制，如氯菊酯处理蚊帐的分布方案。模拟结果表明，以一周为间隔的MDA集中重复，在开始阶段可迅速降低间日疟的流行率，并在几年内将疟原虫率保持在1%以下，但此后流行率将上升。相反，如果试验一次或两次MDA，同时通过加强媒介控制降低媒介容量，则寄生虫率将长期保持在1%以下。在任何情况下，重要的是要注意复发病例，因为即使在MDA执行后，也需要很长时间才能降低催眠药携带者的比例。