Studies on the Transmission model for Echinococcus multilocularis and its simulations
多房棘球绦虫传播模型及其模拟研究
基本信息
- 批准号:16540105
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 2.12万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:日本
- 项目类别:Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
- 财政年份:2004
- 资助国家:日本
- 起止时间:2004 至 2007
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Echinococcus multilocularis causes human alveolar echinococcus. In Japan, high prevalence of E. multilocularis among the fox population has been reported throughout Hokkaido. Accordingly, control measures, such as fox hunting and the distribution of bait containing Praziquantel, have been conducted. This study developed a transmission model for individuals in the fox population and included a stochastic infection process to assess the prevalence of E. multilocularis. To make our model realistic, we used the worm burden for each individual in the fox population. We assumed that the worm burden depends on the number of protoscoleces in a predated vole and the number of infection experiences. We carried out stochastic simulations with 1000 trials for the situations of Koshimizu and Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan. The distribution of the worm burden among foxes obtained using the model agreed with dissection data. The simulation indicates that a careful choice of season is necessary for an effective distribution of Praziquantel-containing bait. A stochastic model for E. multilocularis, which can assess the range of the prevalence in the fox population, would be helpful in analyzing their complex life-cycle and also in designing control strategies.
多房棘球蚴引起人肺泡棘球蚴。在日本,据报道整个北海道狐群中多房仓鼠高流行率。因此,采取了诸如猎狐和分发含有吡喹酮的诱饵等控制措施。本研究建立了狐种群个体传播模型,包括随机感染过程,以评估多房棘球绦虫的流行。为了使我们的模型更真实,我们使用了狐狸种群中每个个体的蠕虫负担。我们假设,蠕虫的负担取决于在一个古老的田鼠的原头节的数量和感染经验的数量。我们对日本北海道小清水和札幌的情况进行了1000次随机模拟。利用该模型得到的狐体内虫负荷分布与解剖数据吻合。模拟结果表明,要想有效地投放吡喹酮诱饵,必须谨慎选择季节。建立多房小仓鼠种群的随机分布模型,对分析多房小仓鼠复杂的生命周期和制定防治策略具有重要意义。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(66)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Mathematical model for SARS-nosocomial transmission
SARS 院内传播的数学模型
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2006
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Fukutome;A.;Ishikawa;H
- 通讯作者:H
A transmission model for Schistosoma japonicum : the simulations on the prevalence and control
日本血吸虫传播模型:流行和控制的模拟
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2004
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Ishikawa;H.;Ohmae;H.;Matsuda;H
- 通讯作者:H
Mathematical modelling for the transmission of Schistosoma mekongi : Kratie province in Cambodia
湄公血吸虫传播的数学模型:柬埔寨桔井省
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2006
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Hisakane;N.;Ishikawa;H.;Kirinoki;M.;Sinuon;M.;Socheat;D.;Matsuda;H
- 通讯作者:H
A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission incorporating drug resistance : Simulations of Solomon Islands situation
包含耐药性的恶性疟原虫传播的数学模型:所罗门群岛情况的模拟
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2007
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Chin;TT.;Nishina;T.;Hisakane;N.;Ishikawa;H
- 通讯作者:H
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ISHIKAWA Hirofumi其他文献
ISHIKAWA Hirofumi的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('ISHIKAWA Hirofumi', 18)}}的其他基金
Development of mathematical model for dengue transmission and strategical simulations for the control against dengue outbreak
开发登革热传播数学模型和控制登革热爆发的战略模拟
- 批准号:
15K04990 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 2.12万 - 项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Studies on the Transmission model for a novel influenza and Assessment of invention strategies against its epidemic
新型流感传播模型研究及针对其流行的发明策略评估
- 批准号:
21540129 - 财政年份:2009
- 资助金额:
$ 2.12万 - 项目类别:
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Studies on the transmission model for vivax malaria and its simulations
间日疟传播模型及其模拟研究
- 批准号:
13640116 - 财政年份:2001
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$ 2.12万 - 项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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