Studies on the Transmission model for Echinococcus multilocularis and its simulations

多房棘球绦虫传播模型及其模拟研究

• 批准号: 16540105
• 负责人: ISHIKAWA Hirofumi
• 金额: $ 2.12万
• 依托单位: Okayama University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16540105/
• 关键词: Echinococcus multilocularis; stochastic model; control strategy; Hokkaido; simulation; 数理モデル

Echinococcus multilocularis causes human alveolar echinococcus. In Japan, high prevalence of E. multilocularis among the fox population has been reported throughout Hokkaido. Accordingly, control measures, such as fox hunting and the distribution of bait containing Praziquantel, have been conducted. This study developed a transmission model for individuals in the fox population and included a stochastic infection process to assess the prevalence of E. multilocularis. To make our model realistic, we used the worm burden for each individual in the fox population. We assumed that the worm burden depends on the number of protoscoleces in a predated vole and the number of infection experiences. We carried out stochastic simulations with 1000 trials for the situations of Koshimizu and Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan. The distribution of the worm burden among foxes obtained using the model agreed with dissection data. The simulation indicates that a careful choice of season is necessary for an effective distribution of Praziquantel-containing bait. A stochastic model for E. multilocularis, which can assess the range of the prevalence in the fox population, would be helpful in analyzing their complex life-cycle and also in designing control strategies.

多房棘球蚴引起人肺泡棘球蚴。在日本，据报道整个北海道狐群中多房仓鼠高流行率。因此，采取了诸如猎狐和分发含有吡喹酮的诱饵等控制措施。本研究建立了狐种群个体传播模型，包括随机感染过程，以评估多房棘球绦虫的流行。为了使我们的模型更真实，我们使用了狐狸种群中每个个体的蠕虫负担。我们假设，蠕虫的负担取决于在一个古老的田鼠的原头节的数量和感染经验的数量。我们对日本北海道小清水和札幌的情况进行了1000次随机模拟。利用该模型得到的狐体内虫负荷分布与解剖数据吻合。模拟结果表明，要想有效地投放吡喹酮诱饵，必须谨慎选择季节。建立多房小仓鼠种群的随机分布模型，对分析多房小仓鼠复杂的生命周期和制定防治策略具有重要意义。

项目成果

Mathematical model for SARS-nosocomial transmission

SARS 院内传播的数学模型

• 发表时间: 2006
• 作者: Fukutome;A.;Ishikawa;H
• 通讯作者: H

数理モデルを通して感染症の流行を考える

通过数学模型考虑传染病的流行

• 发表时间: 2005
• 作者: Fukutome;A.;Ishikawa;H;石川洋文
• 通讯作者: 石川洋文

A transmission model for Schistosoma japonicum : the simulations on the prevalence and control

日本血吸虫传播模型：流行和控制的模拟

• 发表时间: 2004
• 作者: Ishikawa;H.;Ohmae;H.;Matsuda;H
• 通讯作者: H

Mathematical modelling for the transmission of Schistosoma mekongi : Kratie province in Cambodia

湄公血吸虫传播的数学模型：柬埔寨桔井省

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Parasitic Zoonoses in Asian-Pacific Regions 2006, Eds. Isao Nagano & Yuzo Takahashi.(Sankei-sya Co., Nagoya. Concerned)
• 作者: Hisakane;N.;Ishikawa;H.;Kirinoki;M.;Sinuon;M.;Socheat;D.;Matsuda;H
• 通讯作者: H

A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission incorporating drug resistance : Simulations of Solomon Islands situation

包含耐药性的恶性疟原虫传播的数学模型：所罗门群岛情况的模拟

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: Journal of Faculty of Environmental Science, Okayama University(Non-concerned) 12
• 作者: Chin;TT.;Nishina;T.;Hisakane;N.;Ishikawa;H
• 通讯作者: H