A study on the variation in the stratospheric water vapor and the surface area of Polar Stratospheric Clouds of the future atmosphere

为了研究火山喷发增加的硫气溶胶对气候的影响，采用一维化学-辐射耦合模式进行了计算。在基于激光雷达和气球观测的计算中假设了硫酸气溶胶的粒径分布。由粒度分布计算表面积。结果表明，臭氧的减少是由于。硫气溶胶上的非均相反应加速了由于气溶胶对红外辐射的吸收而导致的温度从变暖中恢复。我们将硫酸盐化学纳入CCSR/NIES化学气候模式（CCM）中，成功地模拟了硫酸盐气溶胶的三维分布。利用CCSR/NIES CCM建立了一个三维Nudging化学输送模式（CTM），并利用该模式对冬季副热带西太平洋臭氧总量低于220 DU的低值进行了研究。结果表明，ICE和NAT粒子的非均相反应对臭氧量的影响约为2-3 DU，小于QBO引起的臭氧变化（约5 DU），但不可忽略。为了研究未来大气中水汽对臭氧洞的影响，通过人为增加平流层水汽量1 ppmv，进行了CTM计算。我们在模型中没有发现臭氧空洞的任何显著变化。虽然气溶胶的粒径分布和折射率是根据观测结果进行计算的，但这些参数对于未来的大气来说并不一定是可以接受的。只有正确理解水汽输送的机制，才能正确认识水汽对未来大气臭氧消耗的影响。

Calculations were performed by a 1-D chemistry-radiation coupled model in order to study the effects of sulfuric aerosols increased by a volcanic eruption on climate. The size distribution of the sulfuric aerosols was assumed in the calculation based on the lidar and balloon observations. The surface area was calculated from the size distribution. It is found that the ozone decrease due. to the heterogeneous reactions on the sulfuric aerosols accelerates the temperature recovery from the warming due to the absorption of the infrared radiation by the aerosols. We included the sulfate chemistry into the CCSR/NIES chemical climate model (CCM) and successfully simulated the 3-dimensional (3-D) distribution of sulfuric aerosols. A 3-D nudging chemical transport model (CTM) was also developed from the CCSR/NIES CCM and used to investigate the low total ozone values less than 220 DU in the subtropical Western Pacific in winter. The results show that the effect of heterogeneous reactions on ICE and NAT particles on the ozone amount is about 2-3 DU, which is smaller than the ozone variation due to QBO (around 5 DU), but not negligible. The low ozone amount in this region should be monitored carefully in the future.A CTM calculation was performed with stratospheric water vapor amounts increased artificially by 1 ppmv to investigate the water vapor effect on Ozone Hole in the future atmosphere. We could not find any dramatic change in the ozone hole of the model. Although the size distribution and the refractive index of the aerosols were assumed based on observations for this calculation, it is not necessarily true that these parameters are also acceptable for the future atmosphere. A correct knowledge of the water vapor effect on ozone depletion in the future atmosphere will not be obtained until the mechanisms of water vapor transport are correctly understood.