Econometric evaluation of CAP impacts in Germany

目前，欧盟每年花费约50亿欧元用于向德国农民提供脱钩的直接支付。此外，农业政策制定者越来越多地依赖“农村发展”的差别化措施，这些措施除了支持农业企业外，还应有助于实现环境目标，并加强农村地区的整体实力。该分项目的目的是开发和应用回归模型，分析农业和农村发展政策对德国各地区农业部门的影响。以领土观察单位为基础的分析可以纳入不直接针对农场的文书，例如在德国东部特别重要的村庄复兴措施。该子项目借鉴了最近的文献处理多重和连续的政策影响，在面板数据设置。在该子项目第一阶段正在进行的工作的基础上，主要重点将是对现有模型的三个扩展：（1）加强与CAP对农民行为的影响有关的微观经济基础，（2）在计量经济学模型中明确考虑农场结构的动态，（3）放松线性假设，这通常是这些模型的核心。

Currently, the EU spends around 5 billion euro annually on decoupled direct payments to German farmers. In addition, agricultural policymakers have been increasingly relying on differentiated measures for ‘rural development’ which, besides supporting agricultural enterprises, should also assist environmental aims and strengthen rural areas in general. The aim of this subproject is to develop and apply regression models that analyze the effects of agricultural and rural development policies on the agricultural sector in German regions. Basing the analysis on territorial observation units allows the inclusion of instruments which are not directly aimed at farms, e.g. measures for village regeneration which are of particular importance in eastern Germany. The subproject draws on recent literature dealing with multiple and continuous policy effects in a panel data setting. Building on ongoing work from the first phase of this subproject, the primary focus will be on three extensions to existing models: (1) strengthening the microeconomic underpinnings related to CAP effects on farmers’ behavior, (2) explicitly considering dynamics of farm structures in the econometric models, (3) relaxing the linearity assumptions which are typically central to these models.